Sao Paulo 1-1 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sao Paulo at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sao Paulo vs Coritiba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Coritiba travel to Estadio Do MorumBIS to take on Sao Paulo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 August 2026, 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sao Paulo stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sao Paulo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sao Paulo's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Do MorumBIS this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Sao Paulo are significantly better at Estadio Do MorumBIS than their overall form suggests.
Coritiba — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Coritiba have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Coritiba's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Sao Paulo's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Sao Paulo: 3 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Coritiba, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Sao Paulo winning.
The historical record gives Sao Paulo a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sao Paulo trading profile (22 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Coritiba trading profile (22 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 59% versus Coritiba 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sao Paulo 41% | Coritiba 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 1.53 xG and Coritiba 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 1.092 / defence 0.997 | Coritiba attack 0.860 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.112. Data: 59 Sao Paulo games / 22 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 48% | Draw 31% | Coritiba 21%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Coritiba 4.76. Sao Paulo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Sao Paulo dominate the H2H record, yet Coritiba are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Sao Paulo as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Coritiba (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sao Paulo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Sao Paulo 50% | Coritiba 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio Do MorumBIS • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 48% | Draw 31% | Coritiba 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Sao Paulo 1.53 / Coritiba 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 1.092 / def 0.997 | Coritiba attack 0.860 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Coritiba xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs Coritiba kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Coritiba kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Estadio Do MorumBIS.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?
Sao Paulo 1 - 1 Coritiba.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Do MorumBIS.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Coritiba part of?
Sao Paulo vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 48% chance of winning, Coritiba a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sao Paulo and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Coritiba?
Record (5 meetings): Sao Paulo 3W | Draws 2 | Coritiba 0W.
What form are Sao Paulo and Coritiba in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Coritiba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sao Paulo's attack at 1.09x the league average against Coritiba's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Sao Paulo's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
48%
2.08
31%
3.22
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
2.49
0.95
Coritiba xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
4%
22.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 0.95 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sao Paulo come into this having played 22 games, going 7W 5D 10L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Sao Paulo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Coritiba sit at 1.36 PPG from 22 outings (8W 6D 8L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sao Paulo on 1.18 PPG, Coritiba on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sao Paulo's home form reads 5W 2D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Sao Paulo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Coritiba have taken 1.22 points per game from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sao Paulo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sao Paulo are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.23 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Blended
Coritiba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sao Paulo and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 7W 5D 10L in their last 22 games (1.18 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 8W 6D 8L in their last 22 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or Coritiba away?
Sao Paulo's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 1.89 PPG; Coritiba away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sao Paulo and Coritiba runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sao Paulo's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sao Paulo
3
Draws
0
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Coritiba?
From 6 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 3, Coritiba have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Sao Paulo 1-1 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Coritiba?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sao Paulo 56%, Coritiba 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sao Paulo) and 44% (Coritiba).
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Coritiba in 44%; Coritiba in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sao Paulo play Coritiba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 22% of Coritiba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sao Paulo vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sao Paulo's recent games and 44% of Coritiba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sao Paulo and Coritiba tend to score early?
Sao Paulo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sao Paulo and Coritiba share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Do MorumBIS, Regular Season - 23, as Sao Paulo and Coritiba drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.53 xG and Coritiba 0.95 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 1.09 / defence 1.00 against Coritiba attack 0.86 / defence 1.07, drawn from 59/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 48% | Draw 31% | Coritiba 21%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 41%, Coritiba 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (22 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Coritiba's trading profile (22 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sao Paulo 1.18 PPG, Coritiba 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.