Santos 1-1 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santos at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santos vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mirassol make the trip to Estadio Urbano Caldeira to face Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 21:30 UTC.
Current Form
Santos's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santos's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Urbano Caldeira this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Mirassol have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mirassol away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Santos lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Santos half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Mirassol half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 55% versus Mirassol 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santos 55% | Mirassol 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.53 xG and Mirassol 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 0.984 / defence 1.234 | Mirassol attack 0.891 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.151. Data: 60 Santos games / 60 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 40% | Draw 31% | Mirassol 28%. Fair-value odds: Santos 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Mirassol 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Santos are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Santos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Santos 50% | Mirassol 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 40% | Draw 31% | Mirassol 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Santos 1.53 / Mirassol 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 0.984 / def 1.234 | Mirassol attack 0.891 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Santos (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Santos xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Mirassol xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Mirassol kick off?
Santos vs Mirassol kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Mirassol?
Santos 1 - 1 Mirassol.
Where is Santos vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Mirassol part of?
Santos vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 40% chance of winning, Mirassol a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Santos and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Mirassol?
Record (3 meetings): Santos 0W | Draws 2 | Mirassol 1W.
What form are Santos and Mirassol in?
Santos (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Mirassol (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Santos's attack at 0.98x the league average against Mirassol's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mirassol's attack (0.89x) against Santos's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
40%
2.48
31%
3.20
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Santos xG
Total xG
2.79
1.26
Mirassol xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
6%
16.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Santos and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Santos and 1.26 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Santos's recent record stands at 18W 18D 24L from 60 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mirassol, meanwhile, have gone 24W 18D 18L across 60 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Santos against 1.50 for Mirassol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Santos have managed 12W 8D 9L from 29 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mirassol's away record stands at 7W 8D 14L across 29 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mirassol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Santos are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.47 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Blended
Mirassol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 18W 18D 24L in their last 60 games (1.20 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 24W 18D 18L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Mirassol away?
Santos's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.52 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mirassol won 3-0 on 19 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Santos have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mirassol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Santos
3
Draws
1
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Mirassol?
From 4 meetings on record, Santos have won 0, Mirassol have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Santos 1-1 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Mirassol?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santos 48%, Mirassol 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Santos) and 38% (Mirassol).
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Mirassol in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Mirassol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Santos's recent matches and 52% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santos vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Santos's recent games and 38% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santos and Mirassol tend to score early?
Santos have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Santos and Mirassol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 24, as Santos and Mirassol drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.53 xG and Mirassol 1.26 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.98 / defence 1.23 against Mirassol attack 0.89 / defence 1.18, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 40% | Draw 31% | Mirassol 28%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 55%, Mirassol 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Mirassol's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santos 1.20 PPG, Mirassol 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.