Santos 2-2 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santos at 44%, yet in-form Fluminense provide a compelling counter-argument — this Santos vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fluminense make the trip to Estádio Urbano Caldeira to face Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Tuesday 2 August 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Santos have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santos's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Urbano Caldeira this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Fluminense (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fluminense have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Fluminense are 0.90 PPG clear of Santos in recent Serie A fixtures (2.30 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Santos lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Santos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 37% versus Fluminense 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Santos 33% | Fluminense 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.32 xG and Fluminense 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 1.060 / defence 0.921 | Fluminense attack 1.152 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 0.928. Data: 57 Santos games / 57 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 44% | Draw 28% | Fluminense 28%. Fair-value odds: Santos 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Fluminense 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Santos at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fluminense (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Santos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Santos 50% | Fluminense 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Aug 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 44% | Draw 28% | Fluminense 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Santos 1.32 / Fluminense 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 1.060 / def 0.921 | Fluminense attack 1.152 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.322 / away 0.928 • Poisson stance: Santos (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Santos xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Fluminense xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Fluminense kick off?
Santos vs Fluminense kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 2 August 2022 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Fluminense?
Santos 2 - 2 Fluminense.
Where is Santos vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Fluminense part of?
Santos vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 44% chance of winning, Fluminense a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Santos and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Fluminense?
Record (3 meetings): Santos 1W | Draws 1 | Fluminense 1W.
What form are Santos and Fluminense in?
Santos (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Fluminense (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Santos's attack at 1.06x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (1.15x) against Santos's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.59
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Santos xG
Total xG
2.30
0.98
Fluminense xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
7%
13.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Santos and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Santos and 0.98 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Santos's recent record stands at 18W 22D 17L from 57 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 19L across 57 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Santos against 1.54 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Santos have managed 13W 9D 6L from 28 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fluminense's away record stands at 8W 7D 13L across 28 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Santos are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.18 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Santos have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Blended
Fluminense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 18W 22D 17L in their last 57 games (1.33 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 25W 13D 19L in their last 57 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Fluminense away?
Santos's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.71 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Santos or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santos have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Fluminense in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fluminense won 0-3 on 29 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Santos have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Santos
3
Draws
5
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Fluminense?
From 9 meetings on record, Santos have won 1, Fluminense have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Santos 2-3 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Santos see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 29% (Santos) and 39% (Fluminense) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Santos and 32% for Fluminense.
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Santos have failed to score in 36% of games; Fluminense in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Santos's recent matches and 39% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santos vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Santos's recent games and 32% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Santos and Fluminense share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos and Fluminense finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.32 xG and Fluminense 0.98 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Fluminense outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 1.06 / defence 0.92 against Fluminense attack 1.15 / defence 0.94, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 44% | Draw 28% | Fluminense 28%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 33%, Fluminense 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Fluminense's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santos 1.33 PPG, Fluminense 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Santos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.