Santos 2-1 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santos at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santos vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Santos host Coritiba at Estádio Urbano Caldeira in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Santos — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Santos at Estádio Urbano Caldeira this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Urbano Caldeira. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.56 xG and Coritiba 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 0.968 / defence 0.967 | Coritiba attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 0.878. Data: 39 Santos games / 1 Coritiba games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Santos 57% | Draw 25% | Coritiba 17%. Fair-value odds: Santos 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Coritiba 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Santos (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Santos as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 57% | Draw 25% | Coritiba 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 41% | xG Santos 1.56 / Coritiba 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 0.968 / def 0.967 | Coritiba attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.397 / away 0.878 • Poisson stance: Santos (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Santos xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Coritiba xG
41%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Coritiba kick off?
Santos vs Coritiba kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Coritiba?
Santos 2 - 1 Coritiba.
Where is Santos vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Coritiba part of?
Santos vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 57% chance of winning, Coritiba a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Santos and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Coritiba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Santos and Coritiba in?
Santos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Santos home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Santos's attack rating (0.97) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Santos's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
57%
1.74
25%
3.93
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Santos xG
Total xG
2.28
0.72
Coritiba xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
28%
3.59
4%
27.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 11.5 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Santos and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Santos and 0.72 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Coritiba won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santos's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Santos
1
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Coritiba?
From 5 meetings on record, Santos have won 3, Coritiba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Santos 0-3 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Coritiba?
Santos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Santos edge out Coritiba 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos beat Coritiba 2-1 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.56 xG and Coritiba 0.72 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against Coritiba attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Santos 57% | Draw 25% | Coritiba 17%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.