Santos vs Bahia – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bahia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santos vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bahia make the trip to Estadio Urbano Caldeira to face Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Santos have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santos's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Urbano Caldeira this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Bahia's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bahia have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Santos, 1.70 for Bahia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Santos lead 2W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Santos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Bahia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 55% versus Bahia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santos 53% | Bahia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.27 xG and Bahia 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 0.908 / defence 1.173 | Bahia attack 1.112 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.169. Data: 62 Santos games / 63 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 29% | Draw 30% | Bahia 41%. Fair-value odds: Santos 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Bahia 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Santos 50% | Bahia 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estadio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 29% | Draw 30% | Bahia 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Santos 1.27 / Bahia 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 0.908 / def 1.173 | Bahia attack 1.112 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Bahia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Santos xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Bahia xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Bahia kick off?
Santos vs Bahia is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
Where is Santos vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Bahia part of?
Santos vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 29% chance of winning, Bahia a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Santos and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Bahia?
Record (7 meetings): Santos 2W | Draws 3 | Bahia 2W.
What form are Santos and Bahia in?
Santos (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Bahia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Santos's attack at 0.91x the league average against Bahia's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (1.11x) against Santos's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
29%
3.42
30%
3.35
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Santos xG
Total xG
2.79
1.52
Bahia xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
6%
15.69
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Santos and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Santos and 1.52 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Santos's recent record stands at 19W 19D 24L from 62 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 27W 18D 17L across 62 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Santos against 1.60 for Bahia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Santos have managed 13W 9D 9L from 31 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 8W 10D 13L across 31 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Santos are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.39 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Bahia in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 19W 19D 24L in their last 62 games (1.23 PPG), while Bahia have gone 27W 18D 17L in their last 62 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Bahia away?
Santos's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.55 PPG; Bahia away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Santos or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santos have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Bahia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 3-0 on 30 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Santos have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Santos
3
Draws
2
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Bahia?
From 7 meetings on record, Santos have won 2, Bahia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bahia 2-2 Santos.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santos 48%, Bahia 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Santos) and 52% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Bahia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Santos's recent matches and 55% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santos vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Santos's recent games and 52% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santos and Bahia tend to score early?
Santos have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bahia in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.