RB Bragantino 4-2 Remo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Remo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RB Bragantino and Remo meet at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 21:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RB Bragantino have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, RB Bragantino have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.70 xG and Remo 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.000 / defence 0.987 | Remo attack 0.650 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.037. Data: 49 RB Bragantino games / 11 Remo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 62% | Draw 25% | Remo 13%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Remo 7.69. The model has a clear lean to RB Bragantino (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Bragantino at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Remo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 62% | Draw 25% | Remo 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 41% | xG RB Bragantino 1.70 / Remo 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.000 / def 0.987 | Remo attack 0.650 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Remo xG
41%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Remo kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Remo kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Remo?
RB Bragantino 4 - 2 Remo.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Remo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Remo part of?
RB Bragantino vs Remo is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Remo?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 62% chance of winning, Remo a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Remo?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both RB Bragantino and Remo will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Remo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Remo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RB Bragantino and Remo in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. RB Bragantino home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (1.00) and Remo's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Remo's attack (0.65x) against RB Bragantino's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
62%
1.62
25%
3.98
13%
7.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.37
0.67
Remo xG
1.62
62%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
7.50
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
51%
1.94
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
32%
3.16
2%
41.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 10.6 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Remo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Remo expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.67 for Remo, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Remo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Pre-Season
Remo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
1
RB Bragantino
0
Draws
0
Remo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Remo?
From 1 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 1, Remo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Remo last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when RB Bragantino 4-2 Remo.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Remo?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Remo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
RB Bragantino cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Remo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Remo 4-2 at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.70 xG and Remo 0.67 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. RB Bragantino beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Remo outscored their 0.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Remo attack 0.65 / defence 1.15, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 62% | Draw 25% | Remo 13%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.