RB Bragantino 3-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Palmeiras travel to Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid to take on RB Bragantino. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 23 June 2021, 23:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.17 xG and Palmeiras 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.367 / defence 1.499 | Palmeiras attack 0.973 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 0.841 / away 0.985. RB Bragantino carry an above-average attack strength of 1.367 — their λ of 1.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 5 RB Bragantino games / 5 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 31% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 43%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Palmeiras 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Jun 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 31% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG RB Bragantino 1.17 / Palmeiras 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.367 / def 1.499 | Palmeiras attack 0.973 / def 1.022 | league avg home 0.841 / away 0.985 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Palmeiras xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 23 June 2021 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras?
RB Bragantino 3 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras part of?
RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 31% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both RB Bragantino and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Palmeiras?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RB Bragantino and Palmeiras in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates RB Bragantino's attack at 1.37x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
31%
3.24
26%
3.84
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.61
1.44
Palmeiras xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
7%
13.66
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.6 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.44 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Pre-Season
Palmeiras
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Oct 2025, when Palmeiras won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
RB Bragantino
3
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 2, Palmeiras have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when RB Bragantino 0-1 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
RB Bragantino cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Palmeiras.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Palmeiras 3-1 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.17 xG and Palmeiras 1.44 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. RB Bragantino beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.37 / defence 1.50 against Palmeiras attack 0.97 / defence 1.02, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 31% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 43%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual RB Bragantino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.