RB Bragantino 1-2 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Juventude fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid plays host to RB Bragantino versus Juventude in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 14 August 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
RB Bragantino's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Bragantino's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 0L across 7 games at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid this term (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Juventude (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventude's away record: 0W 3D 3L from 6 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for RB Bragantino, 1.40 for Juventude — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Juventude goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 64% versus Juventude 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 57% | Juventude 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.31 xG and Juventude 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.215 / defence 1.263 | Juventude attack 0.606 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 0.860 / away 1.074. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing RB Bragantino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 RB Bragantino games / 14 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 48% | Draw 28% | Juventude 23%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Juventude 4.35. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates RB Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: RB Bragantino 71% | Juventude 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 48% | Draw 28% | Juventude 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG RB Bragantino 1.31 / Juventude 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.215 / def 1.263 | Juventude attack 0.606 / def 1.256 | league avg home 0.860 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Juventude xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Juventude kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Juventude kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Juventude?
RB Bragantino 1 - 2 Juventude.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Juventude part of?
RB Bragantino vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 48% chance of winning, Juventude a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both RB Bragantino and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Juventude?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RB Bragantino and Juventude in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Juventude (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
RB Bragantino's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Juventude's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (0.61x) against RB Bragantino's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 15/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
48%
2.08
28%
3.51
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.14
0.82
Juventude xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
6%
15.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.82 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RB Bragantino's recent record stands at 6W 7D 1L from 14 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventude, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 6L across 14 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours RB Bragantino by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Juventude heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, RB Bragantino have managed 2W 4D 0L from 6 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juventude's away record stands at 0W 3D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juventude's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.71 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Juventude in 29%.
Defensively: Juventude in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Blended
Juventude
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Juventude in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 6W 7D 1L in their last 14 games (1.79 PPG), while Juventude have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Juventude away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.67 PPG; Juventude away: 0.50 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Juventude been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Juventude in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Juventude — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
RB Bragantino
2
Draws
3
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Juventude?
From 8 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 3, Juventude have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2025, when Juventude 1-0 RB Bragantino.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Juventude see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 67%, Juventude 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for RB Bragantino and 17% for Juventude.
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Juventude in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Juventude?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 33% of Juventude's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 17% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Juventude tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Juventude in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Juventude defy the odds to beat RB Bragantino 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat RB Bragantino 1-2 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.31 xG and Juventude 0.82 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Juventude outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.22 / defence 1.26 against Juventude attack 0.61 / defence 1.26, drawn from 15/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 48% | Draw 28% | Juventude 23%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Juventude win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 57%, Juventude 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Juventude's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Bragantino arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Juventude winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juventude (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.