RB Bragantino 1-0 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Bragantino vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Flamengo travel to Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid to take on RB Bragantino. The game is scheduled for Thursday 9 June 2022, 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Bragantino stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
RB Bragantino at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Flamengo are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for RB Bragantino, 0 for Flamengo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
RB Bragantino trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Flamengo trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 55% versus Flamengo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 50% | Flamengo 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.23 xG and Flamengo 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 0.963 / defence 1.045 | Flamengo attack 1.210 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 0.989. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.210 — the away xG of 1.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 RB Bragantino games / 47 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 36% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 37%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Flamengo 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RB Bragantino 40% | Flamengo 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Thursday 9 Jun 2022, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 36% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG RB Bragantino 1.23 / Flamengo 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 0.963 / def 1.045 | Flamengo attack 1.210 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.220 / away 0.989 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Flamengo xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Flamengo kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Flamengo kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 9 June 2022 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Flamengo?
RB Bragantino 1 - 0 Flamengo.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Flamengo part of?
RB Bragantino vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 36% chance of winning, Flamengo a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both RB Bragantino and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Flamengo?
Record (1 meetings): RB Bragantino 0W | Draws 1 | Flamengo 0W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Flamengo in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates RB Bragantino's attack at 0.96x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
36%
2.78
27%
3.69
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.49
1.25
Flamengo xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
10%
9.71
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.25 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RB Bragantino's recent record stands at 14W 14D 10L from 38 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 21W 8D 9L across 38 games — 1.87 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over RB Bragantino heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, RB Bragantino have managed 7W 9D 3L from 19 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 8W 7D 4L across 19 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.82 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Flamengo in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 14W 14D 10L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 21W 8D 9L in their last 38 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.58 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.63 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Flamengo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RB Bragantino and Flamengo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jun 2023, when RB Bragantino won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
RB Bragantino
2
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Flamengo?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 3, Flamengo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when RB Bragantino 3-0 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Bragantino see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 32% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 58%, Flamengo 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (RB Bragantino) and 63% (Flamengo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of RB Bragantino's games and 63% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Bragantino vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of RB Bragantino's matches and 63% of Flamengo's.
Do RB Bragantino and Flamengo tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as RB Bragantino defy the odds to beat Flamengo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Flamengo 1-0 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.23 xG and Flamengo 1.25 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Flamengo landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.96 / defence 1.04 against Flamengo attack 1.21 / defence 1.05, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 36% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 37%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual RB Bragantino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 50%, Flamengo 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.47. Form was overturned, with RB Bragantino winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.