RB Bragantino 4-2 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RB Bragantino host Coritiba at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 15 June 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Bragantino stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
RB Bragantino's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.46 xG and Coritiba 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 0.924 / defence 0.921 | Coritiba attack 0.868 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 0.994. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing RB Bragantino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 RB Bragantino games / 11 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 52% | Draw 29% | Coritiba 20%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Coritiba 5.00. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Jun 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 52% | Draw 29% | Coritiba 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG RB Bragantino 1.46 / Coritiba 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 0.924 / def 0.921 | Coritiba attack 0.868 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.240 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Coritiba xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Coritiba kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Coritiba kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 15 June 2022 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Coritiba?
RB Bragantino 4 - 2 Coritiba.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Coritiba part of?
RB Bragantino vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 52% chance of winning, Coritiba a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both RB Bragantino and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Coritiba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RB Bragantino and Coritiba in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. RB Bragantino home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (0.92) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
52%
1.93
29%
3.51
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.25
0.80
Coritiba xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
5%
22.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.2 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.80 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Coritiba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RB Bragantino and Coritiba runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
RB Bragantino
1
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Coritiba?
From 6 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 4, Coritiba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when RB Bragantino 0-0 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Coritiba?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
RB Bragantino cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Coritiba 4-2 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.46 xG and Coritiba 0.80 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. RB Bragantino beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Coritiba outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.92 / defence 0.92 against Coritiba attack 0.87 / defence 1.27, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 52% | Draw 29% | Coritiba 20%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.