RB Bragantino 3-3 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RB Bragantino and Bahia meet at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 June 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.09 xG and Bahia 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 0.979 / defence 1.150 | Bahia attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.966 / away 1.089. Data: 1 RB Bragantino games / 1 Bahia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 36% | Draw 30% | Bahia 35%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Bahia 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Jun 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 36% | Draw 30% | Bahia 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG RB Bragantino 1.09 / Bahia 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 0.979 / def 1.150 | Bahia attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.966 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Bahia xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Bahia kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Bahia kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 6 June 2021 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Bahia?
RB Bragantino 3 - 3 Bahia.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Bahia part of?
RB Bragantino vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 36% chance of winning, Bahia a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both RB Bragantino and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Bahia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RB Bragantino and Bahia in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (0.98) and Bahia's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (0.85x) against RB Bragantino's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
36%
2.79
30%
3.39
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.15
1.06
Bahia xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.06 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Pre-Season
Bahia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Bahia have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 4-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
RB Bragantino
2
Draws
5
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Bahia?
From 9 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 2, Bahia have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Bahia 2-0 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Bahia?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
RB Bragantino and Bahia share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 2, as RB Bragantino and Bahia drew 3-3 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.09 xG and Bahia 1.06 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. RB Bragantino beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bahia outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Bahia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 36% | Draw 30% | Bahia 35%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.