Palmeiras 4-1 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Palmeiras face Vasco DA Gama.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vasco DA Gama make the trip to Nubank Parque to face Palmeiras in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Nubank Parque, Palmeiras have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Palmeiras are significantly better at Nubank Parque than their overall form suggests.
Vasco DA Gama (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Palmeiras. A 1.00 PPG lead over Vasco DA Gama (1.60 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Palmeiras have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Vasco DA Gama in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Palmeiras, who have won 5 of the last 7 meetings against Vasco DA Gama — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Vasco DA Gama winning.
The historical record gives Palmeiras a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Palmeiras half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Vasco DA Gama half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 55% versus Vasco DA Gama 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 55% | Vasco DA Gama 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.26 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 0.914 / defence 0.849 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.849 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.151. Data: 61 Palmeiras games / 60 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 43% | Draw 36% | Vasco DA Gama 21%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 2.33 | Draw 2.78 | Vasco DA Gama 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Palmeiras 60% | Vasco DA Gama 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Nubank Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 43% | Draw 36% | Vasco DA Gama 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Palmeiras 1.26 / Vasco DA Gama 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 0.914 / def 0.849 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.849 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Vasco DA Gama xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Nubank Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
Palmeiras 4 - 1 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Nubank Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 43% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 21% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (7 meetings): Palmeiras 5W | Draws 1 | Vasco DA Gama 1W.
What form are Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Palmeiras's attack rating (0.91) and Vasco DA Gama's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vasco DA Gama's attack (0.85x) against Palmeiras's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 61/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
43%
2.32
36%
2.79
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.09
0.83
Vasco DA Gama xG
2.32
43%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
6%
16.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 10.3 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.83 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Palmeiras have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 37W 12D 11L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasco DA Gama's form line: 18W 13D 29L from 60 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vasco DA Gama.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Palmeiras have posted 2.21 PPG from 29 outings (19W 7D 3L).
On the road, Vasco DA Gama have gone 5W 7D 17L from 29 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Palmeiras are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.30 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 37W 12D 11L in their last 60 games (2.05 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 18W 13D 29L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.21 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Vasco DA Gama been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Vasco DA Gama in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 3-0 on 1 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vasco DA Gama — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Palmeiras
1
Draws
1
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama?
From 8 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 6, Vasco DA Gama have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Palmeiras 4-1 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Palmeiras see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 48%, Vasco DA Gama 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Palmeiras) and 59% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Vasco DA Gama?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 52% of Vasco DA Gama's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Palmeiras's recent games and 59% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Palmeiras run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Vasco DA Gama.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Vasco DA Gama 4-1 at Nubank Parque, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.26 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.83 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Palmeiras beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 0.91 / defence 0.85 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 43% | Draw 36% | Vasco DA Gama 21%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 55%, Vasco DA Gama 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.