Palmeiras 1-0 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Palmeiras face Santos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Santos travel to Allianz Parque to take on Palmeiras. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022, 22:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palmeiras have posted 7W 2D 1L at Allianz Parque — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque.
Across all Serie A games this season, Santos have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santos's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Palmeiras are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Palmeiras have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Santos have managed just 0 wins.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Palmeiras winning.
The historical record gives Palmeiras a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Palmeiras in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Santos in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 50% versus Santos 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 52% | Santos 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.40 xG and Santos 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.240 / defence 0.968 | Santos attack 0.852 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 0.900. Data: 64 Palmeiras games / 64 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 53% | Draw 28% | Santos 20%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Santos 5.00. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 40% | Santos 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 53% | Draw 28% | Santos 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Palmeiras 1.40 / Santos 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.240 / def 0.968 | Santos attack 0.852 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.273 / away 0.900 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Santos xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Santos kick off?
Palmeiras vs Santos kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Santos?
Palmeiras 1 - 0 Santos.
Where is Palmeiras vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Santos part of?
Palmeiras vs Santos is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 53% chance of winning, Santos a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Palmeiras and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Santos?
Record (3 meetings): Palmeiras 3W | Draws 0 | Santos 0W.
What form are Palmeiras and Santos in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Santos (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Palmeiras's attack rating (1.24) and Santos's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Santos's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.61
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.15
0.74
Santos xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
5%
20.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.2 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.74 for Santos, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palmeiras come into this having played 64 games, going 35W 15D 14L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-W. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Santos sit at 1.31 PPG from 64 outings (20W 24D 20L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Santos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Palmeiras's home form reads 19W 6D 7L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Santos have taken 0.91 points per game from 32 outings (5W 14D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palmeiras are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Santos in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Santos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Santos in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 35W 15D 14L in their last 64 games (1.88 PPG), while Santos have gone 20W 24D 20L in their last 64 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Santos away?
Palmeiras's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 1.97 PPG; Santos away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Santos in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras's record when hosting Santos specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
2
Draws
2
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Santos?
From 9 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, Santos have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Palmeiras 1-1 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Santos?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Santos see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 56%, Santos 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Palmeiras) and 38% (Santos).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Santos in 31%; Santos in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 44% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Palmeiras's recent games and 38% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Santos tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Santos in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Santos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Santos 1-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.40 xG and Santos 0.74 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.24 / defence 0.97 against Santos attack 0.85 / defence 0.89, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 53% | Draw 28% | Santos 20%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 52%, Santos 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Santos's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.