Palmeiras 1-0 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palmeiras host Mirassol at Allianz Parque in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 March 2026 at 21:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Palmeiras — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Allianz Parque, Palmeiras have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Palmeiras are significantly better at Allianz Parque than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mirassol stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Mirassol's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Palmeiras) versus 1.80 (Mirassol). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Palmeiras, 1 for Mirassol and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Mirassol winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Palmeiras in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Mirassol in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 50% versus Mirassol 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 53% | Mirassol 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 2.01 xG and Mirassol 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.359 / defence 0.856 | Mirassol attack 1.021 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.155. Palmeiras carry an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — their λ of 2.01 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Palmeiras games / 42 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 60% | Draw 22% | Mirassol 18%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Mirassol 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Palmeiras 40% | Mirassol 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 60% | Draw 22% | Mirassol 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Palmeiras 2.01 / Mirassol 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.359 / def 0.856 | Mirassol attack 1.021 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Mirassol xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Mirassol kick off?
Palmeiras vs Mirassol kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Mirassol?
Palmeiras 1 - 0 Mirassol.
Where is Palmeiras vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Mirassol part of?
Palmeiras vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 60% chance of winning, Mirassol a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Palmeiras and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Mirassol?
Record (2 meetings): Palmeiras 0W | Draws 1 | Mirassol 1W.
What form are Palmeiras and Mirassol in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Mirassol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Palmeiras's attack rating (1.36) and Mirassol's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mirassol's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.63
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
3.02
1.01
Mirassol xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
13%
7.45
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
2%
41.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Palmeiras and 1.01 for Mirassol, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Mirassol?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palmeiras come into this having played 38 games, going 23W 7D 8L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Mirassol sit at 1.76 PPG from 38 outings (18W 13D 7L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palmeiras on 2.00 PPG, Mirassol on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Palmeiras's home form reads 12W 5D 2L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Mirassol have taken 1.26 points per game from 19 outings (6W 6D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mirassol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palmeiras are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.66 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Mirassol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 23W 7D 8L in their last 38 games (2.00 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 18W 13D 7L in their last 38 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Mirassol away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.16 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Mirassol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Mirassol in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras's record when hosting Mirassol specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Palmeiras
2
Draws
1
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Mirassol?
From 4 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 1, Mirassol have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Mirassol 1-1 Palmeiras.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palmeiras see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 37%, Mirassol 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Palmeiras) and 32% (Mirassol).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Palmeiras have failed to score in 32% of games; Mirassol in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Mirassol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 47% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Palmeiras's recent games and 32% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Mirassol tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Mirassol 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Mirassol 1-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 2.01 xG and Mirassol 1.01 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palmeiras fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Mirassol landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.36 / defence 0.86 against Mirassol attack 1.02 / defence 1.00, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 60% | Draw 22% | Mirassol 18%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 53%, Mirassol 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mirassol's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palmeiras 2.00 PPG, Mirassol 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palmeiras win broke the near-deadlock. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Mirassol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.