Palmeiras 2-1 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palmeiras vs Cuiaba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cuiaba make the trip to Allianz Parque to face Palmeiras in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Palmeiras (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Palmeiras's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Allianz Parque this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Palmeiras are significantly better at Allianz Parque than their overall form suggests.
Cuiaba have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cuiaba's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Palmeiras's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Cuiaba's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Palmeiras, 1 for Cuiaba and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Palmeiras goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Cuiaba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 49% versus Cuiaba 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 53% | Cuiaba 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.60 xG and Cuiaba 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.112 / defence 0.909 | Cuiaba attack 0.959 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.013. Data: 38 Palmeiras games / 38 Cuiaba games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 54% | Draw 25% | Cuiaba 21%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Cuiaba 4.76. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 40% | Cuiaba 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 54% | Draw 25% | Cuiaba 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Palmeiras 1.60 / Cuiaba 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.112 / def 0.909 | Cuiaba attack 0.959 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Cuiaba xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Cuiaba kick off?
Palmeiras vs Cuiaba kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Cuiaba?
Palmeiras 2 - 1 Cuiaba.
Where is Palmeiras vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Cuiaba part of?
Palmeiras vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 54% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Palmeiras and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Cuiaba?
Record (4 meetings): Palmeiras 2W | Draws 1 | Cuiaba 1W.
What form are Palmeiras and Cuiaba in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Palmeiras's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Cuiaba's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (0.96x) against Palmeiras's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
54%
1.84
25%
4.00
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.49
0.88
Cuiaba xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
4%
24.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.88 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Palmeiras come into this having played 76 games, going 43W 18D 15L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Cuiaba sit at 1.16 PPG from 76 outings (20W 28D 28L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Palmeiras's home form reads 24W 7D 7L across 38 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Cuiaba have taken 0.92 points per game from 38 outings (7W 14D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Palmeiras are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.86 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 43W 18D 15L in their last 76 games (1.93 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 20W 28D 28L in their last 76 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Cuiaba away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.08 PPG; Cuiaba away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Palmeiras have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 5-0 on 24 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Palmeiras
1
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 6, Cuiaba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2024, when Palmeiras 5-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Cuiaba?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 50%, Cuiaba 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Palmeiras) and 34% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Cuiaba in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 42% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Palmeiras's recent games and 34% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Cuiaba 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Cuiaba 2-1 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.60 xG and Cuiaba 0.88 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.11 / defence 0.91 against Cuiaba attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 54% | Draw 25% | Cuiaba 21%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 53%, Cuiaba 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Cuiaba's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Cuiaba (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.