Palmeiras 4-0 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palmeiras vs Coritiba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Coritiba make the trip to Allianz Parque to face Palmeiras in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Thursday 6 October 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Palmeiras have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palmeiras have posted 7W 2D 1L at Allianz Parque — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque.
Coritiba (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Coritiba have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Palmeiras's favour (2.40 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Palmeiras 1W, Coritiba 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jun 2022, ended 2–0 with Palmeiras winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Coritiba — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 43% versus Coritiba 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 43% | Coritiba 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 2.44 xG and Coritiba 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.172 / defence 0.915 | Coritiba attack 0.771 / defence 1.582. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 0.910. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.582 — this is suppressing Palmeiras's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Palmeiras games / 28 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 77% | Draw 15% | Coritiba 8%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.30 | Draw 6.67 | Coritiba 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (77%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 40% | Coritiba 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Oct 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 77% | Draw 15% | Coritiba 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 43% | xG Palmeiras 2.44 / Coritiba 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.172 / def 0.915 | Coritiba attack 0.771 / def 1.582 | league avg home 1.316 / away 0.910 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Coritiba xG
43%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Coritiba kick off?
Palmeiras vs Coritiba kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 6 October 2022 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Coritiba?
Palmeiras 4 - 0 Coritiba.
Where is Palmeiras vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Coritiba part of?
Palmeiras vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 77% chance of winning, Coritiba a 8% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Palmeiras and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Coritiba?
Record (1 meetings): Palmeiras 1W | Draws 0 | Coritiba 0W.
What form are Palmeiras and Coritiba in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Coritiba (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.17x the league average against Coritiba's defence at 1.58x — combine the two and it projects 2.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Coritiba's attack (0.77x) against Palmeiras's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 67/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
77%
1.30
15%
6.61
8%
12.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
3 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
3.08
0.64
Coritiba xG
1.30
77%
Home win
6.61
15%
Draw
12.79
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
9%
11.47
Win to Nil
41%
2.47
1%
146.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 8.8 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.64 for Coritiba, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palmeiras come into this having played 28 games, going 18W 9D 1L for 2.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Coritiba sit at 1.11 PPG from 28 outings (9W 4D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.14 PPG clear of Coritiba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Palmeiras's home form reads 9W 3D 1L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Coritiba have taken 0.15 points per game from 13 outings (0W 2D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coritiba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palmeiras are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.61 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.04 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Coritiba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 18W 9D 1L in their last 28 games (2.25 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 9W 4D 15L in their last 28 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Coritiba away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.31 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.15 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Coritiba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Coritiba in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 22 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palmeiras have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 4-0 on 6 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Coritiba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
0
Draws
0
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Coritiba?
From 5 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, Coritiba have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2026, when Coritiba 1-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Coritiba?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 38%, Coritiba 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Palmeiras) and 54% (Coritiba).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Coritiba in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Coritiba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 54% of Coritiba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Palmeiras's recent games and 54% of Coritiba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Coritiba tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Palmeiras run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Coritiba 4-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 2.44 xG and Coritiba 0.64 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Palmeiras beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.17 / defence 0.92 against Coritiba attack 0.77 / defence 1.58, drawn from 67/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 77% | Draw 15% | Coritiba 8%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 77%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 43%, Coritiba 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Coritiba's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm. Coritiba (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.