Palmeiras 1-0 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Chapecoense-sc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Palmeiras host Chapecoense-sc at Nubank Parque in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Palmeiras's home record at Nubank Parque: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Nubank Parque. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Palmeiras are significantly better at Nubank Parque than their overall form suggests.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Palmeiras have won 2, Chapecoense-sc 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Palmeiras winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.75 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.024 / defence 0.818 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.719 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.133. Data: 55 Palmeiras games / 16 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Palmeiras 63% | Draw 23% | Chapecoense-sc 13%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Chapecoense-sc 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

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