Palmeiras 1-3 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 36 as Palmeiras welcome Botafogo to Allianz Parque. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 27 November 2024 at 00:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Palmeiras — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Palmeiras at Allianz Parque this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Botafogo stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Botafogo have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Palmeiras) versus 2.00 (Botafogo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Palmeiras, 2 for Botafogo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2024, ended 0–1 with Botafogo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Palmeiras in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Botafogo in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 40% versus Botafogo 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 44% | Botafogo 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.23 xG and Botafogo 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.335 / defence 0.867 | Botafogo attack 1.055 / defence 0.697. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 0.984. Palmeiras carry an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — their λ of 1.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Botafogo's defence strength of 0.697 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 73 Palmeiras games / 73 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 43% | Draw 31% | Botafogo 26%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Botafogo 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 40% | Botafogo 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Nov 2024, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 43% | Draw 31% | Botafogo 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Palmeiras 1.23 / Botafogo 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.335 / def 0.867 | Botafogo attack 1.055 / def 0.697 | league avg home 1.319 / away 0.984 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Botafogo xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Botafogo kick off?
Palmeiras vs Botafogo kicked off at 00:30 on Wednesday 27 November 2024 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Botafogo?
Palmeiras 1 - 3 Botafogo.
Where is Palmeiras vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Botafogo part of?
Palmeiras vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 43% chance of winning, Botafogo a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Palmeiras and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Botafogo?
Record (5 meetings): Palmeiras 3W | Draws 0 | Botafogo 2W.
What form are Palmeiras and Botafogo in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Botafogo (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Palmeiras's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Botafogo's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
43%
2.34
31%
3.19
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.13
0.90
Botafogo xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
8%
13.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.90 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palmeiras's recent record stands at 41W 17D 15L from 73 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Botafogo, meanwhile, have gone 38W 20D 15L across 73 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-W-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palmeiras on 1.92 PPG, Botafogo on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Palmeiras have managed 26W 4D 6L from 36 games — 2.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Botafogo's away record stands at 16W 11D 9L across 36 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palmeiras are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.52 scored and 0.88 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Botafogo in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 41W 17D 15L in their last 73 games (1.92 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 38W 20D 15L in their last 73 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Botafogo away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.28 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Botafogo in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jun 2022, when Palmeiras won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palmeiras's record when hosting Botafogo specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
2
Draws
3
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Botafogo?
From 10 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, Botafogo have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Botafogo 0-0 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Botafogo?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 39%, Botafogo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Palmeiras) and 42% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Botafogo in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Botafogo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 50% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Palmeiras's recent games and 42% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Botafogo tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Botafogo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Palmeiras.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Palmeiras 1-3 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.23 xG and Botafogo 0.90 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Botafogo outscored their 0.90 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.33 / defence 0.87 against Botafogo attack 1.05 / defence 0.70, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 43% | Draw 31% | Botafogo 26%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Botafogo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 44%, Botafogo 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Botafogo's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palmeiras 1.92 PPG, Botafogo 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.