Mirassol 1-1 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mirassol face Fortaleza EC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia plays host to Mirassol versus Fortaleza EC in Serie A (matchday 2). Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 23:30 UK time.
Form
Fortaleza EC have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Fortaleza EC have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.27 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 0.865 / defence 1.150 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.074 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 0.881. Data: built from Mirassol's last 1 games and Fortaleza EC's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mirassol 37% | Draw 35% | Fortaleza EC 28%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.70 | Draw 2.85 | Fortaleza EC 3.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mirassol as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Mirassol 1 games, Fortaleza EC 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, matchday 2 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 37% | Draw 35% | Fortaleza EC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Mirassol 1.27 / Fortaleza EC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 0.865 / def 1.150 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.074 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.361 / away 0.881 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Fortaleza EC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC FAQs
What time does Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC?
Mirassol 1 - 1 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC is a Serie A fixture (matchday 2) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 37% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Mirassol and Fortaleza EC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mirassol's attack at 0.86x the league average against Fortaleza EC's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fortaleza EC's attack (1.07x) against Mirassol's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Mirassol's last 1 games and Fortaleza EC's last 39, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
37%
2.70
35%
2.85
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.36
1.09
Fortaleza EC xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.09 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Pre-Season
Fortaleza EC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Mirassol (Home) vs Fortaleza EC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mirassol
Pre-Season
Fortaleza EC
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 24 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Mirassol
1
Draws
0
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Mirassol vs Fortaleza EC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Fortaleza EC?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Mirassol have won 1, Fortaleza EC have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 August 2025: Fortaleza EC 0-1 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Fortaleza EC?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Mirassol and Fortaleza EC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol and Fortaleza EC finished level at 1-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.27 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Fortaleza EC attack 1.07 / defence 1.08, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 37% | Draw 35% | Fortaleza EC 28%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.