Mirassol 2-1 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Corinthians travel to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia to take on Mirassol. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mirassol stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Mirassol at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Mirassol are significantly better at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Corinthians have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Corinthians away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mirassol 1.80 PPG, Corinthians 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mirassol register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Corinthians in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Mirassol have won 1, Corinthians 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 0–3 with Corinthians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mirassol trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Corinthians trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 58% versus Corinthians 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 47% | Corinthians 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.05 xG and Corinthians 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 0.903 / defence 1.126 | Corinthians attack 0.790 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.079. Data: 50 Mirassol games / 51 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 37% | Draw 31% | Corinthians 32%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Corinthians 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mirassol are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mirassol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. This conflicts with form data: Mirassol 60% | Corinthians 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 37% | Draw 31% | Corinthians 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Mirassol 1.05 / Corinthians 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 0.903 / def 1.126 | Corinthians attack 0.790 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Corinthians xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Corinthians kick off?
Mirassol vs Corinthians kicked off at 23:30 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Corinthians?
Mirassol 2 - 1 Corinthians.
Where is Mirassol vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Corinthians part of?
Mirassol vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 37% chance of winning, Corinthians a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Mirassol and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Corinthians?
Record (2 meetings): Mirassol 1W | Draws 0 | Corinthians 1W.
What form are Mirassol and Corinthians in?
Mirassol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Corinthians (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mirassol's attack at 0.90x the league average against Corinthians's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus Mirassol's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
37%
2.70
31%
3.26
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.01
0.96
Corinthians xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Mirassol and 0.96 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mirassol's recent record stands at 18W 13D 7L from 38 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Corinthians, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 15L across 38 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mirassol by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Corinthians heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mirassol have managed 12W 7D 0L from 19 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Corinthians's away record stands at 4W 5D 10L across 19 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mirassol are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.11 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 18W 13D 7L in their last 38 games (1.76 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Corinthians away?
Mirassol's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.26 PPG; Corinthians away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Corinthians won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mirassol's record when hosting Corinthians specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Mirassol
0
Draws
1
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Corinthians?
From 3 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 2, Corinthians have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Mirassol 2-1 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Corinthians?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 68%, Corinthians 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Mirassol) and 42% (Corinthians).
On the defensive side: Mirassol keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Corinthians in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Corinthians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Mirassol's games and 53% of Corinthians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mirassol vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Mirassol's recent games and 42% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mirassol and Corinthians tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mirassol edge out Corinthians 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Corinthians 2-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.05 xG and Corinthians 0.96 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Mirassol beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 0.90 / defence 1.13 against Corinthians attack 0.79 / defence 0.80, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 37% | Draw 31% | Corinthians 32%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 47%, Corinthians 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Corinthians's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.