Juventude 1-0 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sport Recife at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Sport Recife fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juventude host Sport Recife at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 21 June 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 0.73 xG and Sport Recife 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.708 / defence 1.644 | Sport Recife attack 0.836 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 0.842 / away 1.014. Juventude's attack strength of 0.708 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sport Recife bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Juventude's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Juventude games / 4 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 20% | Draw 28% | Sport Recife 53%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 5.00 | Draw 3.57 | Sport Recife 1.89. Sport Recife hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sport Recife as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sport Recife offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Monday 21 Jun 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 20% | Draw 28% | Sport Recife 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 39% | xG Juventude 0.73 / Sport Recife 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.708 / def 1.644 | Sport Recife attack 0.836 / def 1.228 | league avg home 0.842 / away 1.014 • Poisson stance: Sport Recife (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Sport Recife xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Sport Recife kick off?
Juventude vs Sport Recife kicked off at 00:30 on Monday 21 June 2021 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Sport Recife?
Juventude 1 - 0 Sport Recife.
Where is Juventude vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Sport Recife part of?
Juventude vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 20% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 53% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sport Recife the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Juventude and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Sport Recife?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juventude and Sport Recife in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Juventude's attack rating (0.71) and Sport Recife's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 0.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sport Recife's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sport Recife Win
20%
5.08
28%
3.62
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.12
1.39
Sport Recife xG
5.08
20%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
5%
20.47
25%
3.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 16.6 | 11.6 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Juventude and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Juventude and 1.39 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Sport Recife?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Pre-Season
Sport Recife
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Juventude go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Juventude's record when hosting Sport Recife specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Juventude
0
Draws
1
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Sport Recife?
From 4 meetings on record, Juventude have won 3, Sport Recife have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2025, when Sport Recife 0-2 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Sport Recife?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Juventude defy the odds to beat Sport Recife 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat Sport Recife 1-0 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 0.73 xG and Sport Recife 1.39 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sport Recife landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.71 / defence 1.64 against Sport Recife attack 0.84 / defence 1.23, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 20% | Draw 28% | Sport Recife 53%, with Sport Recife to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Juventude win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.