Juventude 0-0 Goias – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 41%, yet in-form Goias provide a compelling counter-argument — this Juventude vs Goias fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 17 as Juventude welcome Goias to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 July 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Juventude — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Juventude have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Juventude are significantly better at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Goias stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Goias, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Goias's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Goias's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Juventude's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Juventude in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Goias in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 31% of cases; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Juventude 69% and Goias 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 56% | Goias 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.25 xG and Goias 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.873 / defence 1.375 | Goias attack 0.819 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 0.926. Data: 54 Juventude games / 16 Goias games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 41% | Draw 29% | Goias 30%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Goias 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventude at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Goias (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventude offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 50% | Goias 38% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Goias | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jul 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 41% | Draw 29% | Goias 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Juventude 1.25 / Goias 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.873 / def 1.375 | Goias attack 0.819 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.299 / away 0.926 • Poisson stance: Juventude (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Goias xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Goias kick off?
Juventude vs Goias kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 17 July 2022 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Goias?
Juventude 0 - 0 Goias.
Where is Juventude vs Goias being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Goias part of?
Juventude vs Goias is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Goias?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 41% chance of winning, Goias a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Goias?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Juventude and Goias will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Goias have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Goias?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juventude and Goias in?
Juventude (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Goias (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Juventude's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Goias's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Goias's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
41%
2.46
29%
3.42
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.30
1.04
Goias xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
9%
11.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Goias?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Juventude and Goias expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Juventude and 1.04 for Goias, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Goias?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juventude's recent record stands at 2W 6D 8L from 16 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Goias, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 6L across 16 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Goias is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Goias by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Juventude heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Juventude have managed 1W 2D 5L from 8 games — 0.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Goias's away record stands at 2W 1D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Juventude are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Goias are on 1.00 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
Goias
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Goias in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 2W 6D 8L in their last 16 games (0.75 PPG), while Goias have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Goias away?
Goias's away record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 0.62 PPG; Goias away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Juventude
1
Draws
1
Goias
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Goias?
From 2 meetings on record, Juventude have won 0, Goias have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Goias last play each other?
They last met on 4 November 2022, when Goias 1-0 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Goias?
Goias have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goias are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 62%, Goias 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Juventude) and 38% (Goias).
On the defensive side: Goias in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Goias away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Goias?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Juventude's recent matches and 38% of Goias's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Goias usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Juventude's recent games and 38% of Goias's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Goias tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Goias in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Juventude's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude and Goias finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.25 xG and Goias 1.04 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Juventude fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Goias landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.87 / defence 1.38 against Goias attack 0.82 / defence 1.10, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 41% | Draw 29% | Goias 30%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 56%, Goias 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Goias's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Goias arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Goias (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.