Juventude 2-2 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Alfredo Jaconi plays host to Juventude versus Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 21 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Juventude have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventude's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Botafogo (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Botafogo have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Botafogo arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Juventude, 0 for Botafogo and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Juventude goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Botafogo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 50% versus Botafogo 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventude 46% | Botafogo 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.04 xG and Botafogo 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.717 / defence 1.170 | Botafogo attack 0.857 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 0.911. Juventude's attack strength of 0.717 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Juventude games / 22 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 38% | Draw 31% | Botafogo 31%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Botafogo 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juventude as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Botafogo (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventude if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 40% | Botafogo 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 38% | Draw 31% | Botafogo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Juventude 1.04 / Botafogo 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.717 / def 1.170 | Botafogo attack 0.857 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.340 / away 0.911 • Poisson stance: Juventude (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Botafogo xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Botafogo kick off?
Juventude vs Botafogo kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Botafogo?
Juventude 2 - 2 Botafogo.
Where is Juventude vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Botafogo part of?
Juventude vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 38% chance of winning, Botafogo a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Juventude and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Botafogo?
Record (1 meetings): Juventude 0W | Draws 1 | Botafogo 0W.
What form are Juventude and Botafogo in?
Juventude (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Botafogo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Juventude's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Botafogo's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Botafogo's attack (0.86x) against Juventude's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
38%
2.64
31%
3.21
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Juventude xG
Total xG
1.96
0.91
Botafogo xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Juventude and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Juventude and 0.91 for Botafogo, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Juventude come into this having played 22 games, going 3W 7D 12L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Botafogo sit at 1.18 PPG from 22 outings (7W 5D 10L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Botafogo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Juventude — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Juventude's home form reads 2W 3D 6L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Botafogo have taken 1.27 points per game from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juventude are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 0.91 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
Botafogo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 3W 7D 12L in their last 22 games (0.73 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 7W 5D 10L in their last 22 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Botafogo away?
Botafogo's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 0.82 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Botafogo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won 5-1 on 21 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Botafogo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Juventude
2
Draws
3
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Botafogo?
From 6 meetings on record, Juventude have won 1, Botafogo have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Juventude 1-3 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 46%, Botafogo 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Juventude) and 27% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Juventude have failed to score in 36% of games; Botafogo in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Botafogo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Juventude's recent matches and 36% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Juventude's recent games and 27% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Botafogo tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventude and Botafogo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 23, as Juventude and Botafogo drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.04 xG and Botafogo 0.91 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Juventude beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Botafogo outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.72 / defence 1.17 against Botafogo attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 38% | Draw 31% | Botafogo 31%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 46%, Botafogo 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Botafogo's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Juventude (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.