Juventude 1-3 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Botafogo at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventude vs Botafogo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Alfredo Jaconi plays host to Juventude versus Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 24 August 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Juventude have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventude's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Juventude are significantly better at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi than their overall form suggests.
Botafogo (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Botafogo have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Botafogo arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Juventude, 2 for Botafogo and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Botafogo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Juventude goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Botafogo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 59% versus Botafogo 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 54% | Botafogo 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 0.71 xG and Botafogo 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.977 / defence 0.844 | Botafogo attack 1.138 / defence 0.565. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.118. Botafogo's defence strength of 0.565 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Juventude games / 56 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 24% | Draw 33% | Botafogo 44%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | Botafogo 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Juventude's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Botafogo as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Botafogo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.78 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 40% | Botafogo 0% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 24% | Draw 33% | Botafogo 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Juventude 0.71 / Botafogo 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.977 / def 0.844 | Botafogo attack 1.138 / def 0.565 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Botafogo xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Botafogo kick off?
Juventude vs Botafogo kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Botafogo?
Juventude 1 - 3 Botafogo.
Where is Juventude vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Botafogo part of?
Juventude vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 24% chance of winning, Botafogo a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Juventude and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Botafogo?
Record (5 meetings): Juventude 1W | Draws 2 | Botafogo 2W.
What form are Juventude and Botafogo in?
Juventude (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Botafogo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Juventude's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Botafogo's defensive record (0.56x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. Flip it around — Botafogo's attack (1.14x) against Juventude's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 57/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
24%
4.21
33%
3.06
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Juventude xG
Total xG
1.78
1.07
Botafogo xG
4.21
24%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.97
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.31
21%
4.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 18.1 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Juventude and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Juventude and 1.07 for Botafogo, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Juventude come into this having played 56 games, going 16W 14D 26L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Botafogo sit at 1.93 PPG from 56 outings (31W 15D 10L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Botafogo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Juventude — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Juventude's home form reads 12W 8D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Botafogo have taken 1.86 points per game from 28 outings (15W 7D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Juventude are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.46 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
Botafogo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 16W 14D 26L in their last 56 games (1.11 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 31W 15D 10L in their last 56 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Botafogo away?
Botafogo's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.57 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Juventude or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Botafogo in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Botafogo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won 5-1 on 21 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Botafogo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Juventude
2
Draws
3
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Botafogo?
From 6 meetings on record, Juventude have won 1, Botafogo have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Juventude 1-3 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 57%, Botafogo 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Juventude) and 32% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Botafogo in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Botafogo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Juventude's recent matches and 36% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Juventude's recent games and 32% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Botafogo tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Botafogo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Juventude.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Juventude 1-3 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 0.71 xG and Botafogo 1.07 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Botafogo outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.98 / defence 0.84 against Botafogo attack 1.14 / defence 0.56, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 24% | Draw 33% | Botafogo 44%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 54%, Botafogo 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Botafogo's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Juventude (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.