Internacional 3-1 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Internacional at 38%, yet in-form Flamengo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Internacional vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Flamengo make the trip to Estádio José Pinheiro Borda to face Internacional in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 June 2022 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Internacional have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Internacional's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Internacional are significantly better at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Flamengo have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Flamengo are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Internacional register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Flamengo in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Internacional goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Flamengo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 50% versus Flamengo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Internacional 40% | Flamengo 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.24 xG and Flamengo 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 0.990 / defence 1.055 | Flamengo attack 1.061 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 0.999. Data: 48 Internacional games / 48 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 38% | Draw 30% | Flamengo 32%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Flamengo 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Internacional are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Flamengo (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Internacional if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Internacional 80% | Flamengo 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jun 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 38% | Draw 30% | Flamengo 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Internacional 1.24 / Flamengo 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 0.990 / def 1.055 | Flamengo attack 1.061 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.262 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Internacional (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Flamengo xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Flamengo kick off?
Internacional vs Flamengo kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 12 June 2022 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Flamengo?
Internacional 3 - 1 Flamengo.
Where is Internacional vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Flamengo part of?
Internacional vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 38% chance of winning, Flamengo a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Internacional and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Flamengo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Internacional and Flamengo in?
Internacional (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Internacional's attack at 0.99x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.06x) against Internacional's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
38%
2.63
30%
3.33
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.36
1.12
Flamengo xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.04
9%
10.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Internacional and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Internacional and 1.12 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Internacional come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 12D 14L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Flamengo sit at 1.87 PPG from 38 outings (21W 8D 9L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Internacional — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Internacional's home form reads 8W 6D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Flamengo have taken 1.63 points per game from 19 outings (8W 7D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Internacional are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.82 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Internacional and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 12W 12D 14L in their last 38 games (1.26 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 21W 8D 9L in their last 38 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.58 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Internacional or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Flamengo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 29 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Internacional have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Internacional
6
Draws
2
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Flamengo?
From 10 meetings on record, Internacional have won 2, Flamengo have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 29 July 2026, when Internacional 1-1 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 63%, Flamengo 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Internacional) and 63% (Flamengo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Internacional play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Internacional's games and 63% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Internacional vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Internacional's matches and 63% of Flamengo's.
Do Internacional and Flamengo tend to score early?
Internacional have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Internacional cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Flamengo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Flamengo 3-1 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.24 xG and Flamengo 1.12 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Internacional beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 0.99 / defence 1.05 against Flamengo attack 1.06 / defence 0.99, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 38% | Draw 30% | Flamengo 32%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 40%, Flamengo 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Internacional winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Internacional (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.