Internacional 0-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Internacional vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio José Pinheiro Borda plays host to Internacional versus Cuiaba in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 1 August 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form
Internacional (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Internacional's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 games at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda this term (0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Cuiaba's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Internacional, 1.10 for Cuiaba — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Internacional half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 58% versus Cuiaba 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Internacional 33% | Cuiaba 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 0.95 xG and Cuiaba 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 0.837 / defence 1.339 | Cuiaba attack 0.860 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 0.903 / away 1.073. Cuiaba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Internacional's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Internacional games / 12 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 29% | Draw 29% | Cuiaba 43%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Cuiaba 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cuiaba at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cuiaba if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Internacional 50% | Cuiaba 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 29% | Draw 29% | Cuiaba 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Internacional 0.95 / Cuiaba 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 0.837 / def 1.339 | Cuiaba attack 0.860 / def 1.263 | league avg home 0.903 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Cuiaba xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Cuiaba kick off?
Internacional vs Cuiaba kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Cuiaba?
Internacional 0 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Internacional vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Cuiaba part of?
Internacional vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 29% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Internacional and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Cuiaba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Internacional and Cuiaba in?
Internacional (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Cuiaba (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Internacional's attack rating (0.84) and Cuiaba's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (0.86x) against Internacional's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 13/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
29%
3.51
29%
3.47
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.19
1.24
Cuiaba xG
3.51
29%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
39%
2.60
Win to Nil
8%
12.07
16%
6.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.8 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Internacional and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Internacional and 1.24 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Internacional come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 4D 5L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cuiaba sit at 1.00 PPG from 12 outings (2W 6D 4L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Internacional against 1.00 for Cuiaba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Internacional's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Cuiaba have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (1W 4D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cuiaba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Internacional are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 1.08 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Blended
Cuiaba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Internacional and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 2W 6D 4L in their last 12 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Cuiaba away?
Cuiaba's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 0.80 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Internacional go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Internacional won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Internacional have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Internacional
2
Draws
2
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Internacional have won 4, Cuiaba have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2024, when Internacional 3-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Cuiaba?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 40%, Cuiaba 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Internacional and 40% for Cuiaba.
On the defensive side: Cuiaba in 40%; Internacional have failed to score in 40% of games; Cuiaba in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Internacional play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Internacional's recent matches and 60% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Internacional vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Internacional's recent games and 40% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Internacional and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Internacional have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Internacional's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional and Cuiaba finished level at 0-0 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 0.95 xG and Cuiaba 1.24 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Internacional fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Cuiaba landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 0.84 / defence 1.34 against Cuiaba attack 0.86 / defence 1.26, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 29% | Draw 29% | Cuiaba 43%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 33%, Cuiaba 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cuiaba's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Internacional 1.08 PPG, Cuiaba 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Internacional (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.