Internacional 5-2 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Internacional at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Internacional vs Chapecoense-sc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Chapecoense-sc travel to Estádio José Pinheiro Borda to take on Internacional. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 October 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Internacional stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Internacional at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Chapecoense-sc — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chapecoense-sc's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Internacional have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Internacional, 0 for Chapecoense-sc and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2021, ended 2–1 with Internacional winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Internacional trading profile (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Chapecoense-sc trading profile (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 44% versus Chapecoense-sc 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Internacional 35% | Chapecoense-sc 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.24 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 1.040 / defence 1.023 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.800 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 0.898 / away 1.095. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.332 — this is suppressing Internacional's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Internacional games / 24 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 42% | Draw 34% | Chapecoense-sc 24%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Chapecoense-sc 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Internacional at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Internacional offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Internacional 40% | Chapecoense-sc 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 42% | Draw 34% | Chapecoense-sc 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Internacional 1.24 / Chapecoense-sc 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 1.040 / def 1.023 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.800 / def 1.332 | league avg home 0.898 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Internacional (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Chapecoense-sc xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Internacional vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 10 October 2021 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Chapecoense-sc?
Internacional 5 - 2 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Internacional vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Internacional vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 42% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Internacional and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Chapecoense-sc?
Record (1 meetings): Internacional 1W | Draws 0 | Chapecoense-sc 0W.
What form are Internacional and Chapecoense-sc in?
Internacional (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Internacional's attack rating (1.04) and Chapecoense-sc's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chapecoense-sc's attack versus Internacional's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
42%
2.38
34%
2.96
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.14
0.90
Chapecoense-sc xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
7%
14.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Internacional and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Internacional and 0.90 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Chapecoense-sc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Internacional come into this having played 23 games, going 8W 9D 6L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chapecoense-sc sit at 0.52 PPG from 23 outings (1W 9D 13L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Internacional carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Chapecoense-sc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Internacional's home form reads 4W 3D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Chapecoense-sc have taken 0.70 points per game from 10 outings (1W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Internacional come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Internacional are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Chapecoense-sc are on 0.87 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc in 65%.
Defensively: Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Blended
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Internacional and Chapecoense-sc in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 8W 9D 6L in their last 23 games (1.43 PPG), while Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 9D 13L in their last 23 (0.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Chapecoense-sc away?
Internacional's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.50 PPG; Chapecoense-sc away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Internacional or Chapecoense-sc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Chapecoense-sc in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Internacional and Chapecoense-sc runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Internacional have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Oct 2021, when Internacional won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Internacional's record when hosting Chapecoense-sc specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Internacional
0
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Chapecoense-sc?
From 3 meetings on record, Internacional have won 3, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Internacional 2-0 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Chapecoense-sc?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 40%, Chapecoense-sc 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Internacional) and 50% (Chapecoense-sc).
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Internacional have failed to score in 30% of games; Chapecoense-sc in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Internacional play Chapecoense-sc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Internacional's games and 70% of Chapecoense-sc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Internacional vs Chapecoense-sc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Internacional's recent games and 50% of Chapecoense-sc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Internacional and Chapecoense-sc tend to score early?
Internacional have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Chapecoense-sc in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Internacional run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Chapecoense-sc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Chapecoense-sc 5-2 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.24 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.90 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Internacional beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chapecoense-sc outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.04 / defence 1.02 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.80 / defence 1.33, drawn from 23/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 42% | Draw 34% | Chapecoense-sc 24%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 35%, Chapecoense-sc 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Internacional arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.52. Form held, and they took the win. Internacional (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chapecoense-sc (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.