Internacional 2-1 Ceara – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Internacional at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Internacional vs Ceara encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ceara make the trip to Estádio José Pinheiro Borda to face Internacional in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Thursday 27 October 2022 at 01:45 UTC.
Current Form
Internacional's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Internacional have posted 8W 2D 0L at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ceara have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Ceara's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Internacional's 2.20 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Ceara's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Internacional lead 0W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Internacional — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Ceara — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 49% versus Ceara 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Internacional 42% | Ceara 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.34 xG and Ceara 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 1.327 / defence 0.858 | Ceara attack 0.752 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 0.975. Internacional carry an above-average attack strength of 1.327 — their λ of 1.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ceara's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 71 Internacional games / 71 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 54% | Draw 28% | Ceara 17%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Ceara 5.88. Internacional hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Ceara's lower xG of 0.63 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Internacional as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Internacional if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Internacional 20% | Ceara 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Thursday 27 Oct 2022, 01:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 54% | Draw 28% | Ceara 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 35% | xG Internacional 1.34 / Ceara 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 1.327 / def 0.858 | Ceara attack 0.752 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.308 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Internacional (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Ceara xG
35%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Ceara kick off?
Internacional vs Ceara kicked off at 01:45 on Thursday 27 October 2022 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Ceara?
Internacional 2 - 1 Ceara.
Where is Internacional vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Ceara part of?
Internacional vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 54% chance of winning, Ceara a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Internacional and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Ceara?
Record (3 meetings): Internacional 0W | Draws 3 | Ceara 0W.
What form are Internacional and Ceara in?
Internacional (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Ceara (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Internacional's attack rating (1.33) and Ceara's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ceara's attack (0.75x) against Internacional's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
54%
1.85
28%
3.52
17%
5.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Internacional xG
Total xG
1.97
0.63
Ceara xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
5.74
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.90
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
29%
3.46
5%
22.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 8.7 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 11.8 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Internacional and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Internacional and 0.63 for Ceara, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 71 outings, Internacional have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 28W 25D 18L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Ceara's form line: 17W 33D 21L from 71 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Internacional against 1.18 for Ceara. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Internacional have posted 1.86 PPG from 35 outings (18W 11D 6L).
On the road, Ceara have gone 4W 18D 13L from 35 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Internacional come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Internacional are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Ceara are on 0.96 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Current Season
Ceara
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Internacional and Ceara in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 28W 25D 18L in their last 71 games (1.54 PPG), while Ceara have gone 17W 33D 21L in their last 71 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Ceara away?
Internacional's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.86 PPG; Ceara away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Internacional or Ceara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Ceara in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 21 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Internacional have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Internacional have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ceara — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Internacional
3
Draws
0
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Ceara?
From 6 meetings on record, Internacional have won 3, Ceara have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2025, when Ceara 1-2 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Ceara?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 54%, Ceara 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Internacional) and 29% (Ceara).
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ceara in 31%; Ceara in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Internacional play Ceara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Internacional's recent matches and 49% of Ceara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Internacional vs Ceara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Internacional's recent games and 29% of Ceara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Internacional and Ceara tend to score early?
Internacional have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Ceara in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Internacional edge out Ceara 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Ceara 2-1 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.34 xG and Ceara 0.63 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.33 / defence 0.86 against Ceara attack 0.75 / defence 0.77, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 54% | Draw 28% | Ceara 17%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 42%, Ceara 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Ceara's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Internacional 1.54 PPG, Ceara 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Internacional win broke the near-deadlock. Ceara (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.