Internacional 2-3 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Internacional at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Internacional vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Internacional host Botafogo at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 June 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Internacional — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Internacional have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Internacional are significantly better at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.62 xG and Botafogo 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 1.112 / defence 1.039 | Botafogo attack 0.870 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 0.978. Data: 50 Internacional games / 12 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 54% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 19%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Botafogo 5.26. Internacional hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Internacional at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Internacional offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jun 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 54% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Internacional 1.62 / Botafogo 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 1.112 / def 1.039 | Botafogo attack 0.870 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.261 / away 0.978 • Poisson stance: Internacional (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Botafogo xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Botafogo kick off?
Internacional vs Botafogo kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 19 June 2022 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Botafogo?
Internacional 2 - 3 Botafogo.
Where is Internacional vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Botafogo part of?
Internacional vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 54% chance of winning, Botafogo a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Internacional and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Botafogo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Internacional and Botafogo in?
Internacional (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Internacional home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Internacional's attack rating (1.11) and Botafogo's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Internacional's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.72
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.50
0.88
Botafogo xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
4%
26.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Internacional and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Internacional and 0.88 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Pre-Season
Botafogo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Internacional and Botafogo runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2025, when Botafogo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Internacional's record when hosting Botafogo specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Internacional
1
Draws
5
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Botafogo?
From 9 meetings on record, Internacional have won 3, Botafogo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Botafogo 2-2 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Botafogo defy the odds to beat Internacional 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Internacional 2-3 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.62 xG and Botafogo 0.88 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Botafogo outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.11 / defence 1.04 against Botafogo attack 0.87 / defence 1.16, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 54% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 19%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Botafogo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.