Gremio 3-0 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Bragantino at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gremio vs RB Bragantino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gremio and RB Bragantino meet at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 16 November 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gremio's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gremio at Arena do Grêmio this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Gremio are significantly better at Arena do Grêmio than their overall form suggests.
RB Bragantino have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
RB Bragantino away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
RB Bragantino arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gremio lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with RB Bragantino winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Gremio half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
RB Bragantino half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 39% versus RB Bragantino 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 36% | RB Bragantino 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.26 xG and RB Bragantino 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 1.013 / defence 1.371 | RB Bragantino attack 1.069 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 0.977 / away 0.950. RB Bragantino bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Gremio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Gremio games / 33 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 34% | Draw 27% | RB Bragantino 40%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | RB Bragantino 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 60% | RB Bragantino 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Nov 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 34% | Draw 27% | RB Bragantino 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Gremio 1.26 / RB Bragantino 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 1.013 / def 1.371 | RB Bragantino attack 1.069 / def 1.270 | league avg home 0.977 / away 0.950 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.39
RB Bragantino xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Gremio vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 21:00 on Tuesday 16 November 2021 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs RB Bragantino?
Gremio 3 - 0 RB Bragantino.
Where is Gremio vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs RB Bragantino part of?
Gremio vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 34% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gremio and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and RB Bragantino?
Record (1 meetings): Gremio 0W | Draws 0 | RB Bragantino 1W.
What form are Gremio and RB Bragantino in?
Gremio (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. RB Bragantino (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gremio's attack rating (1.01) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (1.07x) against Gremio's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 31/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
34%
2.98
27%
3.77
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.65
1.39
RB Bragantino xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
8%
11.97
11%
8.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Gremio and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Gremio and 1.39 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Gremio have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 8W 5D 18L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
RB Bragantino's form line: 12W 12D 7L from 31 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, RB Bragantino are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gremio.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gremio have posted 1.33 PPG from 15 outings (5W 5D 5L).
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 6W 5D 4L from 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Gremio are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.42 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 8W 5D 18L in their last 31 games (0.94 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 12W 12D 7L in their last 31 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or RB Bragantino away?
RB Bragantino's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.33 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gremio won 3-0 on 16 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gremio have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Gremio
4
Draws
4
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and RB Bragantino?
From 9 meetings on record, Gremio have won 1, RB Bragantino have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Gremio 1-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and RB Bragantino?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gremio see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 47%, RB Bragantino 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Gremio) and 47% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gremio have failed to score in 33% of games; RB Bragantino in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gremio's recent matches and 60% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Gremio's recent games and 47% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gremio run riot with a 3-0 hammering of RB Bragantino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat RB Bragantino 3-0 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.26 xG and RB Bragantino 1.39 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Gremio beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RB Bragantino landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 1.01 / defence 1.37 against RB Bragantino attack 1.07 / defence 1.27, drawn from 31/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 34% | Draw 27% | RB Bragantino 40%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Gremio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 36%, RB Bragantino 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Bragantino arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Gremio winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.