Gremio 1-1 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gremio at 49%, yet in-form Corinthians provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gremio vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gremio host Corinthians at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 June 2025 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gremio have posted 5W 1D 4L at Arena do Grêmio — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Gremio are significantly better at Arena do Grêmio than their overall form suggests.
Corinthians — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Corinthians's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Corinthians — 1.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Corinthians have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 6 encounters against Gremio's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 0–3 with Corinthians winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Corinthians have won 3 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Gremio in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Corinthians in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 54% versus Corinthians 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 55% | Corinthians 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.30 xG and Corinthians 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.933 / defence 0.958 | Corinthians attack 0.853 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 0.909. Data: 49 Gremio games / 49 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 49% | Draw 31% | Corinthians 20%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Corinthians 5.00. Gremio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gremio are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Corinthians (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gremio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. This conflicts with form data: Gremio 70% | Corinthians 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Friday 13 Jun 2025, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 49% | Draw 31% | Corinthians 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Gremio 1.30 / Corinthians 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.933 / def 0.958 | Corinthians attack 0.853 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.274 / away 0.909 • Poisson stance: Gremio (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Corinthians xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Corinthians kick off?
Gremio vs Corinthians kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 13 June 2025 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Corinthians?
Gremio 1 - 1 Corinthians.
Where is Gremio vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Corinthians part of?
Gremio vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 49% chance of winning, Corinthians a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Gremio and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Corinthians?
Record (6 meetings): Gremio 0W | Draws 3 | Corinthians 3W.
What form are Gremio and Corinthians in?
Gremio (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Corinthians (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gremio's attack rating (0.93) and Corinthians's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
49%
2.05
31%
3.24
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.04
0.74
Corinthians xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
6%
18.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.5 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Gremio and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Gremio and 0.74 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gremio come into this having played 76 games, going 33W 14D 29L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Corinthians sit at 1.39 PPG from 76 outings (27W 25D 24L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gremio on 1.49 PPG, Corinthians on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Gremio's home form reads 23W 4D 11L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Corinthians have taken 1.05 points per game from 38 outings (11W 7D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gremio are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.33 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 33W 14D 29L in their last 76 games (1.49 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 27W 25D 24L in their last 76 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Corinthians away?
Gremio's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.92 PPG; Corinthians away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gremio and Corinthians runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Corinthians go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Corinthians won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gremio's record when hosting Corinthians specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Gremio
4
Draws
5
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Corinthians?
From 9 meetings on record, Gremio have won 0, Corinthians have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Gremio 1-3 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Corinthians?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 47%, Corinthians 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gremio) and 42% (Corinthians).
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Corinthians in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gremio's recent matches and 40% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Gremio's recent games and 42% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Corinthians tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gremio and Corinthians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 12, as Gremio and Corinthians drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.30 xG and Corinthians 0.74 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Corinthians attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 49% | Draw 31% | Corinthians 20%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 55%, Corinthians 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Corinthians's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.49 PPG, Corinthians 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.