Goias 1-1 Ceara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ceara at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Goias vs Ceara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Goias and Ceara meet at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 June 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ceara (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Ceara have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Goias 0.89 xG and Ceara 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Goias attack 0.920 / defence 1.063 | Ceara attack 1.157 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 0.998. Ceara's defence strength of 0.760 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 10 Goias games / 48 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Goias 26% | Draw 31% | Ceara 43%. Fair-value odds: Goias 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Ceara 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ceara are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ceara if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Goias vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jun 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Goias 26% | Draw 31% | Ceara 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Goias 0.89 / Ceara 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Goias attack 0.920 / def 1.063 | Ceara attack 1.157 / def 0.760 | league avg home 1.276 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Ceara (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Goias xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Ceara xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Goias vs Ceara kick off?
Goias vs Ceara kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 12 June 2022 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What was the final score in Goias vs Ceara?
Goias 1 - 1 Ceara.
Where is Goias vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What competition is Goias vs Ceara part of?
Goias vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Goias vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Goias a 26% chance of winning, Ceara a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Goias vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Goias and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Goias vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Ceara?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Goias and Ceara in?
Ceara (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Ceara away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Goias's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Ceara's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — Ceara's attack (1.16x) against Goias's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
26%
3.87
31%
3.19
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Goias xG
Total xG
2.12
1.23
Ceara xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
8%
13.22
18%
5.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 14.7 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Goias vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Goias and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Goias and 1.23 for Ceara, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Goias vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Goias
Pre-Season
Ceara
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Goias
2
Draws
0
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Ceara?
From 2 meetings on record, Goias have won 0, Ceara have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Goias and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2022, when Ceara 1-1 Goias.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Goias home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Goias and Ceara share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro, Regular Season - 11, as Goias and Ceara drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Goias 0.89 xG and Ceara 1.23 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Goias attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against Ceara attack 1.16 / defence 0.76, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Goias 26% | Draw 31% | Ceara 43%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.