Goias 1-1 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Goias at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Goias vs Atletico Paranaense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 20 as Goias welcome Atletico Paranaense to Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 22 August 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Goias have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Goias, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Goias at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Atletico Paranaense — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Atletico Paranaense have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Goias 1.50 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Goias, 2 for Atletico Paranaense and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with Atletico Paranaense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Goias in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Atletico Paranaense in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Goias 51% versus Atletico Paranaense 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Goias 42% | Atletico Paranaense 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Goias 1.13 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Goias attack 0.847 / defence 1.145 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.999 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 0.960. Data: 57 Goias games / 57 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Goias 36% | Draw 30% | Atletico Paranaense 34%. Fair-value odds: Goias 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Atletico Paranaense 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Goias at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Goias offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Goias 50% | Atletico Paranaense 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Goias vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Aug 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Goias 36% | Draw 30% | Atletico Paranaense 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Goias 1.13 / Atletico Paranaense 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Goias attack 0.847 / def 1.145 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.999 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.350 / away 0.960 • Poisson stance: Goias (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Goias xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Atletico Paranaense xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Goias vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Goias vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 22 August 2023 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What was the final score in Goias vs Atletico Paranaense?
Goias 1 - 1 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Goias vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What competition is Goias vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Goias vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Goias vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Goias a 36% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Goias the favourite.
Will both teams score in Goias vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Goias and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Goias vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Atletico Paranaense?
Record (3 meetings): Goias 1W | Draws 0 | Atletico Paranaense 2W.
What form are Goias and Atletico Paranaense in?
Goias (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Goias's attack at 0.85x the league average against Atletico Paranaense's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Paranaense's attack versus Goias's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Goias Win
36%
2.81
30%
3.30
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Goias xG
Total xG
2.22
1.10
Atletico Paranaense xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
12%
8.43
11%
9.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Goias vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Goias and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Goias and 1.10 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Goias vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Goias's recent record stands at 17W 17D 23L from 57 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Goias is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Paranaense, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 18L across 57 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Goias on 1.19 PPG, Atletico Paranaense on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Goias have managed 9W 11D 8L from 28 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico Paranaense's away record stands at 7W 6D 15L across 28 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico Paranaense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Goias come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Goias are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.33 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Paranaense in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Goias
Blended
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Goias and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Goias have gone 17W 17D 23L in their last 57 games (1.19 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 25W 14D 18L in their last 57 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Goias at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Goias's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Goias at home: 1.36 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Goias or Atletico Paranaense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Goias have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Atletico Paranaense in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Goias's record when hosting Atletico Paranaense specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Goias
1
Draws
2
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Atletico Paranaense?
From 4 meetings on record, Goias have won 1, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Goias and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2023, when Goias 1-1 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Goias and Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Goias see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Goias 57%, Atletico Paranaense 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Goias) and 39% (Atletico Paranaense).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Goias home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Goias play Atletico Paranaense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Goias's recent matches and 43% of Atletico Paranaense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Goias vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Goias's recent games and 39% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Goias and Atletico Paranaense tend to score early?
Goias have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Atletico Paranaense in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Goias and Atletico Paranaense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro, Regular Season - 20, as Goias and Atletico Paranaense drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Goias 1.13 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.10 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Goias attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Atletico Paranaense attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Goias 36% | Draw 30% | Atletico Paranaense 34%, with Goias to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Goias 42%, Atletico Paranaense 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Goias's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Goias 1.19 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.