Fortaleza EC 4-0 Santos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortaleza EC vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC and Santos meet at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 August 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fortaleza EC's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Fortaleza EC have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Santos (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santos away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Fortaleza EC have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Santos in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Fortaleza EC, 1 for Santos and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 2–0 with Fortaleza EC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Fortaleza EC half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Santos half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 43% versus Santos 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 38% | Santos 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.41 xG and Santos 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 0.877 / defence 1.017 | Santos attack 0.729 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 0.986. Santos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Fortaleza EC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Fortaleza EC games / 56 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 53% | Draw 28% | Santos 19%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Santos 5.26. Fortaleza EC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortaleza EC at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fortaleza EC 30% | Santos 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 53% | Draw 28% | Santos 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.41 / Santos 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 0.877 / def 1.017 | Santos attack 0.729 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.326 / away 0.986 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Santos xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Santos kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Santos kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Santos?
Fortaleza EC 4 - 0 Santos.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Santos part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Santos is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 53% chance of winning, Santos a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Santos?
Record (4 meetings): Fortaleza EC 1W | Draws 2 | Santos 1W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Santos in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Santos (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fortaleza EC's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Santos's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Santos's attack (0.73x) against Fortaleza EC's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.52
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.14
0.73
Santos xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
5%
21.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 12.1 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.73 for Santos, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 21W 15D 20L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Santos's form line: 16W 17D 23L from 56 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Fortaleza EC against 1.16 for Santos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 1.63 PPG from 27 outings (11W 11D 5L).
On the road, Santos have gone 5W 7D 15L from 27 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.12 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Blended
Santos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Santos in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 21W 15D 20L in their last 56 games (1.39 PPG), while Santos have gone 16W 17D 23L in their last 56 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Santos away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.63 PPG; Santos away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Santos in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortaleza EC won 4-0 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortaleza EC have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Santos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fortaleza EC
3
Draws
2
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Santos?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 3, Santos have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Santos 1-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Santos?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 37%, Santos 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Fortaleza EC) and 41% (Santos).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 37% of games; Santos in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 37% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 41% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Santos tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Santos in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fortaleza EC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Santos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Santos 4-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.41 xG and Santos 0.73 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Fortaleza EC beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.88 / defence 1.02 against Santos attack 0.73 / defence 1.21, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 53% | Draw 28% | Santos 19%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 38%, Santos 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Santos's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.39 PPG, Santos 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm. Santos (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.