Fluminense 0-1 Vitoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Vitoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fluminense and Vitoria meet at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 27 June 2024 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fluminense's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Fluminense's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.42 xG and Vitoria 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.951 / defence 1.156 | Vitoria attack 0.796 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.086. Data: 49 Fluminense games / 11 Vitoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 45% | Draw 30% | Vitoria 25%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Vitoria 4.00. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Vitoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Thursday 27 Jun 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 45% | Draw 30% | Vitoria 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Fluminense 1.42 / Vitoria 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.951 / def 1.156 | Vitoria attack 0.796 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Vitoria xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Vitoria kick off?
Fluminense vs Vitoria kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 27 June 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Vitoria?
Fluminense 0 - 1 Vitoria.
Where is Fluminense vs Vitoria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Vitoria part of?
Fluminense vs Vitoria is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Vitoria?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 45% chance of winning, Vitoria a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Vitoria?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Fluminense and Vitoria will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Vitoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Vitoria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fluminense and Vitoria in?
Fluminense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Fluminense home split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fluminense's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Vitoria's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Vitoria's attack (0.80x) against Fluminense's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
45%
2.23
30%
3.29
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.42
1.00
Vitoria xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
6%
16.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Vitoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Vitoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.00 for Vitoria, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Vitoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Pre-Season
Vitoria
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vitoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Fluminense
2
Draws
2
Vitoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Vitoria?
From 5 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 1, Vitoria have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Vitoria last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Fluminense 2-2 Vitoria.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Vitoria?
Vitoria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Vitoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Vitoria defy the odds to beat Fluminense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitoria beat Fluminense 0-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.42 xG and Vitoria 1.00 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fluminense fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.95 / defence 1.16 against Vitoria attack 0.80 / defence 1.11, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 45% | Draw 30% | Vitoria 25%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Vitoria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.