Fluminense 2-1 Remo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Remo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio do Maracanã plays host to Fluminense versus Remo in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 22 August 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Fluminense (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Estádio do Maracanã this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estádio do Maracanã than their overall form suggests.
Remo have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Remo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Remo's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Fluminense against 1.50 for Remo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fluminense lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with Fluminense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fluminense — key trading statistics (23 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Remo — key trading statistics (23 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fluminense 74% and Remo 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 48% | Remo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 2.04 xG and Remo 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.161 / defence 0.922 | Remo attack 0.813 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.166. Remo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing Fluminense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Fluminense games / 23 Remo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 62% | Draw 25% | Remo 13%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Remo 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Fluminense (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 80% | Remo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Remo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 62% | Draw 25% | Remo 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Fluminense 2.04 / Remo 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.161 / def 0.922 | Remo attack 0.813 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Remo xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Remo kick off?
Fluminense vs Remo kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Remo?
Fluminense 2 - 1 Remo.
Where is Fluminense vs Remo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Fluminense vs Remo part of?
Fluminense vs Remo is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Remo?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 62% chance of winning, Remo a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Remo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fluminense and Remo will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Remo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Remo?
Record (1 meetings): Fluminense 1W | Draws 0 | Remo 0W.
What form are Fluminense and Remo in?
Fluminense (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. Remo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fluminense's attack rating (1.16) and Remo's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Remo's attack (0.81x) against Fluminense's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 61/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
62%
1.61
25%
3.99
13%
7.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.92
0.87
Remo xG
1.61
62%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
7.82
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
13%
7.71
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
2%
60.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Remo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Remo expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.87 for Remo, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Remo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fluminense come into this having played 23 games, going 10W 8D 5L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-W. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Remo sit at 1.00 PPG from 23 outings (5W 8D 10L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Remo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Remo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Fluminense's home form reads 8W 3D 1L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Remo have taken 0.75 points per game from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fluminense are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Remo are on 1.17 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fluminense have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
Remo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Remo in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 10W 8D 5L in their last 23 games (1.65 PPG), while Remo have gone 5W 8D 10L in their last 23 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Remo away?
Fluminense's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.25 PPG; Remo away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since March 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Fluminense
0
Draws
0
Remo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Remo?
From 2 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 2, Remo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Remo last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Fluminense 2-1 Remo.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Remo?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Remo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 75%, Remo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fluminense and 58% for Remo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Remo in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Remo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Remo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Fluminense's games and 50% of Remo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fluminense vs Remo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fluminense's matches and 58% of Remo's.
Do Fluminense and Remo tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Remo in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Remo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Remo 2-1 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 2.04 xG and Remo 0.87 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.16 / defence 0.92 against Remo attack 0.81 / defence 1.33, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 62% | Draw 25% | Remo 13%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 48%, Remo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Remo's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fluminense arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.