Fluminense 2-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fluminense vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Palmeiras travel to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to take on Fluminense. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 November 2021, 21:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fluminense have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Fluminense's home record at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Palmeiras are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Fluminense trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Palmeiras trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 42% versus Palmeiras 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 29% | Palmeiras 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 0.89 xG and Palmeiras 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.926 / defence 1.061 | Palmeiras attack 1.185 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 0.945. Data: 31 Fluminense games / 31 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 27% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 42%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Palmeiras 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 50% | Palmeiras 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Nov 2021, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 27% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Fluminense 0.89 / Palmeiras 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.926 / def 1.061 | Palmeiras attack 1.185 / def 0.982 | league avg home 0.981 / away 0.945 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Palmeiras xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Palmeiras kick off?
Fluminense vs Palmeiras kicked off at 21:15 on Sunday 14 November 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Fluminense 2 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is Fluminense vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Palmeiras part of?
Fluminense vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 27% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Fluminense and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Palmeiras?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fluminense and Palmeiras in?
Fluminense (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 0.93x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
27%
3.68
30%
3.28
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.08
1.19
Palmeiras xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
8%
12.10
17%
5.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 14.8 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.19 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Fluminense have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 11W 9D 11L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Palmeiras's form line: 18W 4D 9L from 31 games, 1.87 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fluminense.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fluminense have posted 1.73 PPG from 15 outings (7W 5D 3L).
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 8W 2D 5L from 15 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Fluminense are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.65 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 11W 9D 11L in their last 31 games (1.35 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 18W 4D 9L in their last 31 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Palmeiras away?
Fluminense's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.73 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fluminense and Palmeiras runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fluminense's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fluminense
3
Draws
3
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 4, Palmeiras have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Palmeiras 2-1 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Palmeiras?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 47%, Palmeiras 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Fluminense) and 53% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Palmeiras in 47%; Fluminense have failed to score in 27% of games; Palmeiras in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Fluminense's recent matches and 40% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Fluminense's recent games and 53% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fluminense defy the odds to beat Palmeiras 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Palmeiras 2-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 0.89 xG and Palmeiras 1.19 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Fluminense beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Palmeiras attack 1.19 / defence 0.98, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 27% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 42%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Fluminense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 29%, Palmeiras 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Palmeiras's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with Fluminense winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Palmeiras (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.