Fluminense 1-0 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fluminense at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mirassol make the trip to Estádio do Maracanã to face Fluminense in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Thursday 6 November 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Fluminense (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fluminense have posted 7W 0D 3L at Estádio do Maracanã — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Maracanã. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Mirassol's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fluminense lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Mirassol winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fluminense — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Mirassol — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 42% versus Mirassol 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 39% | Mirassol 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.35 xG and Mirassol 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.948 / defence 0.732 | Mirassol attack 1.049 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 0.945. Fluminense's defence rating of 0.732 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 69 Fluminense games / 31 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 52% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 20%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Mirassol 5.00. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 20% | Mirassol 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Nov 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 52% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG Fluminense 1.35 / Mirassol 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.948 / def 0.732 | Mirassol attack 1.049 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.415 / away 0.945 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Mirassol xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Mirassol kick off?
Fluminense vs Mirassol kicked off at 22:30 on Thursday 6 November 2025 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Mirassol?
Fluminense 1 - 0 Mirassol.
Where is Fluminense vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Fluminense vs Mirassol part of?
Fluminense vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 52% chance of winning, Mirassol a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Fluminense and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Mirassol?
Record (1 meetings): Fluminense 0W | Draws 0 | Mirassol 1W.
What form are Fluminense and Mirassol in?
Fluminense (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Mirassol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 0.95x the league average against Mirassol's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mirassol's attack (1.05x) against Fluminense's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
52%
1.93
28%
3.55
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.08
0.73
Mirassol xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
5%
19.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.73 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fluminense's recent record stands at 14W 5D 12L from 31 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Mirassol, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 5L across 31 games — 1.81 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Fluminense against 1.81 for Mirassol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fluminense have managed 11W 1D 3L from 15 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mirassol's away record stands at 5W 5D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mirassol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fluminense are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.68 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol in 61%.
Defensively: Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Mirassol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 14W 5D 12L in their last 31 games (1.52 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 15W 11D 5L in their last 31 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Mirassol away?
Fluminense's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.27 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Mirassol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Mirassol in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Fluminense
0
Draws
2
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Mirassol?
From 3 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 1, Mirassol have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Mirassol 1-0 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Mirassol?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 40%, Mirassol 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Fluminense) and 40% (Mirassol).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Mirassol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Fluminense's recent matches and 53% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Fluminense's recent games and 40% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Mirassol tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Mirassol 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Mirassol 1-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.35 xG and Mirassol 0.73 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.95 / defence 0.73 against Mirassol attack 1.05 / defence 1.01, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 52% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 20%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 39%, Mirassol 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mirassol's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.52 PPG, Mirassol 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Mirassol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.