Fluminense 1-0 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Internacional fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fluminense host Internacional at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 25 November 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fluminense — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Fluminense have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Internacional stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Internacional's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fluminense 1.50 PPG, Internacional 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Fluminense in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Internacional in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 41% versus Internacional 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 29% | Internacional 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.12 xG and Internacional 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.050 / defence 0.983 | Internacional attack 0.713 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 0.970 / away 0.929. Data: 34 Fluminense games / 34 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 47% | Draw 32% | Internacional 21%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Internacional 4.76. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Internacional's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fluminense at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fluminense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.77 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 50% | Internacional 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Nov 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 47% | Draw 32% | Internacional 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 32% | xG Fluminense 1.12 / Internacional 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.050 / def 0.983 | Internacional attack 0.713 / def 1.102 | league avg home 0.970 / away 0.929 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Internacional xG
32%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Internacional kick off?
Fluminense vs Internacional kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 25 November 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Internacional?
Fluminense 1 - 0 Internacional.
Where is Fluminense vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Internacional part of?
Fluminense vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 47% chance of winning, Internacional a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Fluminense and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Internacional?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fluminense and Internacional in?
Fluminense (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Internacional (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fluminense's attack rating (1.05) and Internacional's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.4%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
47%
2.14
32%
3.12
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Fluminense xG
Total xG
1.77
0.65
Internacional xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.09
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
7%
14.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 11.0 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.1 | 12.4 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.65 for Internacional, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fluminense come into this having played 34 games, going 13W 9D 12L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Internacional sit at 1.38 PPG from 34 outings (12W 11D 11L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fluminense on 1.41 PPG, Internacional on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fluminense's home form reads 9W 5D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Internacional have taken 1.06 points per game from 17 outings (4W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fluminense are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.24 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Internacional
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Internacional in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 13W 9D 12L in their last 34 games (1.41 PPG), while Internacional have gone 12W 11D 11L in their last 34 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Internacional away?
Fluminense's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.88 PPG; Internacional away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Internacional in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Internacional won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fluminense's record when hosting Internacional specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fluminense
2
Draws
4
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Internacional?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 4, Internacional have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Internacional 2-0 Fluminense.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Internacional see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 47%, Internacional 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Fluminense and 35% for Internacional.
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Internacional in 35%; Internacional in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Fluminense's recent matches and 41% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Fluminense's recent games and 35% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Internacional 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Internacional 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.12 xG and Internacional 0.65 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.05 / defence 0.98 against Internacional attack 0.71 / defence 1.10, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 47% | Draw 32% | Internacional 21%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 29%, Internacional 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Internacional's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.41 PPG, Internacional 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Fluminense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.