Fluminense 2-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fluminense (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fluminense face Cuiaba.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fluminense host Cuiaba at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 May 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fluminense — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fluminense have posted 7W 2D 1L at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cuiaba's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Fluminense carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
Fluminense hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Cuiaba, with 1 draws in between.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Fluminense winning.
The historical record gives Fluminense a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fluminense in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Cuiaba in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 42% versus Cuiaba 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 42% | Cuiaba 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.57 xG and Cuiaba 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.088 / defence 0.846 | Cuiaba attack 1.011 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.229. Data: 43 Fluminense games / 43 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 48% | Draw 28% | Cuiaba 24%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Cuiaba 4.17. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fluminense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fluminense 60% | Cuiaba 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 48% | Draw 28% | Cuiaba 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Fluminense 1.57 / Cuiaba 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.088 / def 0.846 | Cuiaba attack 1.011 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Cuiaba xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Cuiaba kick off?
Fluminense vs Cuiaba kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Cuiaba?
Fluminense 2 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Fluminense vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Cuiaba part of?
Fluminense vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 48% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fluminense and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Cuiaba?
Record (4 meetings): Fluminense 3W | Draws 1 | Cuiaba 0W.
What form are Fluminense and Cuiaba in?
Fluminense (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 1.09x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
48%
2.09
28%
3.54
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.62
1.05
Cuiaba xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
5%
19.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.05 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Fluminense have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 36W 16D 24L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Cuiaba's form line: 20W 28D 28L from 76 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Fluminense are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cuiaba.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fluminense have posted 2.03 PPG from 38 outings (23W 8D 7L).
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 7W 14D 17L from 38 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fluminense are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.86 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 36W 16D 24L in their last 76 games (1.63 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 20W 28D 28L in their last 76 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Cuiaba away?
Fluminense's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.03 PPG; Cuiaba away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fluminense and Cuiaba runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fluminense go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Sep 2023, when Cuiaba won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fluminense's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Fluminense
1
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 6, Cuiaba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2024, when Fluminense 1-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Cuiaba?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 47%, Cuiaba 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Fluminense) and 34% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Cuiaba in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Fluminense's recent matches and 42% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Fluminense's recent games and 34% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fluminense cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cuiaba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Cuiaba 2-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.57 xG and Cuiaba 1.05 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cuiaba landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.09 / defence 0.85 against Cuiaba attack 1.01 / defence 0.99, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 48% | Draw 28% | Cuiaba 24%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 42%, Cuiaba 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cuiaba's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fluminense arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fluminense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Cuiaba (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.