Flamengo 1-0 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 30 as Flamengo welcome RB Bragantino to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 November 2023 at 00:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Flamengo have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
RB Bragantino — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Flamengo) versus 2.00 (RB Bragantino). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Flamengo, 2 for RB Bragantino and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Jun 2023, ended 0–4 with RB Bragantino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 54% versus RB Bragantino 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 52% | RB Bragantino 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 0.99 xG and RB Bragantino 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 0.920 / defence 0.878 | RB Bragantino attack 1.043 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.099. Data: 71 Flamengo games / 71 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 34% | Draw 31% | RB Bragantino 35%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | RB Bragantino 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RB Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 40% | RB Bragantino 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Friday 24 Nov 2023, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 34% | Draw 31% | RB Bragantino 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Flamengo 0.99 / RB Bragantino 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 0.920 / def 0.878 | RB Bragantino attack 1.043 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
1.01
RB Bragantino xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Flamengo vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 00:30 on Friday 24 November 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Flamengo 1 - 0 RB Bragantino.
Where is Flamengo vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs RB Bragantino part of?
Flamengo vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 34% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Flamengo and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and RB Bragantino?
Record (4 meetings): Flamengo 1W | Draws 1 | RB Bragantino 2W.
What form are Flamengo and RB Bragantino in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. RB Bragantino (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Flamengo's attack rating (0.92) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.3%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
34%
2.93
31%
3.21
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.00
1.01
RB Bragantino xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
13%
7.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 13.6 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Flamengo and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Flamengo and 1.01 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 71 outings, Flamengo have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 34W 17D 20L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
RB Bragantino's form line: 27W 22D 22L from 71 games, 1.45 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Flamengo on 1.68 PPG, RB Bragantino on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Flamengo have posted 1.86 PPG from 35 outings (19W 8D 8L).
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 9W 12D 14L from 35 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.34 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 34W 17D 20L in their last 71 games (1.68 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 27W 22D 22L in their last 71 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or RB Bragantino away?
Flamengo's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.86 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Flamengo or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jun 2023, when RB Bragantino won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Flamengo
2
Draws
3
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 5, RB Bragantino have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when RB Bragantino 3-0 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and RB Bragantino?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 43%, RB Bragantino 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Flamengo) and 49% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 51% of their matches; RB Bragantino in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Flamengo's recent matches and 54% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Flamengo's recent games and 49% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Flamengo defy the odds to beat RB Bragantino 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat RB Bragantino 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 0.99 xG and RB Bragantino 1.01 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. RB Bragantino landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 0.92 / defence 0.88 against RB Bragantino attack 1.04 / defence 0.81, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 34% | Draw 31% | RB Bragantino 35%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 52%, RB Bragantino 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.68 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.