Flamengo 3-1 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Juventude encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 26 as Flamengo welcome Juventude to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 13 October 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juventude stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventude away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Flamengo, 1 for Juventude and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2021, ended 0–1 with Juventude winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Juventude trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 46% versus Juventude 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 54% | Juventude 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.55 xG and Juventude 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.238 / defence 1.163 | Juventude attack 0.765 / defence 1.385. League average goals — home 0.903 / away 1.067. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.385 — this is suppressing Flamengo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Flamengo games / 25 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 49% | Draw 30% | Juventude 21%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Juventude 4.76. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 40% | Juventude 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 Oct 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 49% | Draw 30% | Juventude 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Flamengo 1.55 / Juventude 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.238 / def 1.163 | Juventude attack 0.765 / def 1.385 | league avg home 0.903 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Juventude xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Juventude kick off?
Flamengo vs Juventude kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 13 October 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Juventude?
Flamengo 3 - 1 Juventude.
Where is Flamengo vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Juventude part of?
Flamengo vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 49% chance of winning, Juventude a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Flamengo and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Juventude?
Record (1 meetings): Flamengo 0W | Draws 0 | Juventude 1W.
What form are Flamengo and Juventude in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Juventude (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Flamengo's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Juventude's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Juventude's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
49%
2.03
30%
3.36
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.50
0.95
Juventude xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
4%
22.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.95 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Flamengo's recent record stands at 13W 3D 6L from 22 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventude, meanwhile, have gone 6W 8D 8L across 22 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Juventude heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 6W 0D 4L from 10 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juventude's away record stands at 1W 4D 5L across 10 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juventude's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Flamengo are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 1.00 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Juventude
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Juventude in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 13W 3D 6L in their last 22 games (1.91 PPG), while Juventude have gone 6W 8D 8L in their last 22 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Juventude away?
Flamengo's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.80 PPG; Juventude away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Juventude been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Juventude in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Flamengo and Juventude runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Flamengo have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Apr 2025, when Flamengo won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Juventude specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Flamengo
1
Draws
2
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Juventude?
From 8 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 5, Juventude have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Juventude 0-2 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Juventude?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Juventude see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 40%, Juventude 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Flamengo) and 30% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: Flamengo have failed to score in 30% of games; Juventude in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Juventude?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Flamengo's games and 70% of Juventude's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Flamengo vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Flamengo's recent games and 30% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Juventude tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Juventude in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Juventude.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Juventude 3-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.55 xG and Juventude 0.95 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Flamengo beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.24 / defence 1.16 against Juventude attack 0.77 / defence 1.39, drawn from 22/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 49% | Draw 30% | Juventude 21%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 54%, Juventude 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventude's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Juventude (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.