Flamengo 0-0 Internacional – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Flamengo at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Internacional fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho plays host to Flamengo versus Internacional in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Thursday 6 October 2022 at 01:30 UTC.
Current Form
Flamengo's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Flamengo at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
Internacional (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Internacional's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Flamengo 0W, Internacional 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jun 2022, ended 1–3 with Internacional winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Internacional half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 49% versus Internacional 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 52% | Internacional 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.82 xG and Internacional 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.468 / defence 0.927 | Internacional attack 1.104 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 0.909. Flamengo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.468 — their λ of 1.82 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 67 Flamengo games / 67 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 58% | Draw 23% | Internacional 19%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Internacional 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 50% | Internacional 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Oct 2022, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 58% | Draw 23% | Internacional 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Flamengo 1.82 / Internacional 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.468 / def 0.927 | Internacional attack 1.104 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.328 / away 0.909 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Internacional xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Internacional kick off?
Flamengo vs Internacional kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 6 October 2022 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Internacional?
Flamengo 0 - 0 Internacional.
Where is Flamengo vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Internacional part of?
Flamengo vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 58% chance of winning, Internacional a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Flamengo and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Internacional?
Record (1 meetings): Flamengo 0W | Draws 0 | Internacional 1W.
What form are Flamengo and Internacional in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Internacional (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Flamengo's attacking strength (1.47x league average) is weighed against Internacional's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — Internacional's attack (1.10x) against Flamengo's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
58%
1.71
23%
4.40
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.75
0.93
Internacional xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
16%
6.17
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
3%
32.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.93 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Internacional?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 67 outings, Flamengo have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 35W 14D 18L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Internacional's form line: 26W 23D 18L from 67 games, 1.51 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Flamengo against 1.51 for Internacional. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Flamengo have posted 2.09 PPG from 33 outings (22W 3D 8L).
On the road, Internacional have gone 9W 12D 12L from 33 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Flamengo are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.31 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: Internacional in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Internacional
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Internacional in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 35W 14D 18L in their last 67 games (1.78 PPG), while Internacional have gone 26W 23D 18L in their last 67 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Internacional away?
Flamengo's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.09 PPG; Internacional away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Internacional in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 29 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Internacional — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Flamengo
6
Draws
2
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Internacional?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 2, Internacional have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 29 July 2026, when Internacional 1-1 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Internacional see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 36%, Internacional 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Flamengo) and 33% (Internacional).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Internacional in 30%; Internacional in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Flamengo's recent matches and 46% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Flamengo's recent games and 33% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Internacional tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Internacional in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Flamengo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 30, as Flamengo and Internacional drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.82 xG and Internacional 0.93 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Flamengo fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Internacional landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.47 / defence 0.93 against Internacional attack 1.10 / defence 0.93, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 58% | Draw 23% | Internacional 19%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 52%, Internacional 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Internacional's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.78 PPG, Internacional 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.