Flamengo 0-0 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Internacional encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho plays host to Flamengo versus Internacional in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
Flamengo's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
Internacional (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Internacional's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Flamengo's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Internacional's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Flamengo 0W, Internacional 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Internacional winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Internacional half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 57% versus Internacional 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 55% | Internacional 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.50 xG and Internacional 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.091 / defence 0.884 | Internacional attack 0.868 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 0.959. Data: 58 Flamengo games / 58 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 55% | Draw 28% | Internacional 18%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Internacional 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Internacional lead the H2H ledger, but Flamengo carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Flamengo 50% | Internacional 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 55% | Draw 28% | Internacional 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG Flamengo 1.50 / Internacional 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.091 / def 0.884 | Internacional attack 0.868 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.349 / away 0.959 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Internacional xG
41%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Internacional kick off?
Flamengo vs Internacional kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Internacional?
Flamengo 0 - 0 Internacional.
Where is Flamengo vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Internacional part of?
Flamengo vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 55% chance of winning, Internacional a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Flamengo and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Internacional?
Record (3 meetings): Flamengo 0W | Draws 1 | Internacional 2W.
What form are Flamengo and Internacional in?
Flamengo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Internacional (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Flamengo's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Internacional's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Internacional's attack (0.87x) against Flamengo's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
55%
1.83
28%
3.60
18%
5.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.23
0.74
Internacional xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
5.69
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
4%
25.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 11.8 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.74 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Internacional?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Flamengo have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 28W 13D 17L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Internacional's form line: 26W 19D 13L from 58 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Flamengo against 1.67 for Internacional. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Flamengo have posted 1.93 PPG from 28 outings (16W 6D 6L).
On the road, Internacional have gone 9W 11D 8L from 28 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Flamengo are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.29 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Internacional in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Internacional
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Internacional in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 28W 13D 17L in their last 58 games (1.67 PPG), while Internacional have gone 26W 19D 13L in their last 58 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Internacional away?
Flamengo's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.93 PPG; Internacional away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Internacional in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 29 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Internacional — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Flamengo
6
Draws
2
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Internacional?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 2, Internacional have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 29 July 2026, when Internacional 1-1 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Internacional see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 46%, Internacional 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Flamengo) and 29% (Internacional).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Internacional in 32%; Internacional in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Flamengo's recent matches and 50% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Flamengo's recent games and 29% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Internacional tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Internacional in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Flamengo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo and Internacional finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.50 xG and Internacional 0.74 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Flamengo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.09 / defence 0.88 against Internacional attack 0.87 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 55% | Draw 28% | Internacional 18%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 55%, Internacional 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Internacional's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.67 PPG, Internacional 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.