Flamengo 2-1 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 45%, yet in-form Gremio provide a compelling counter-argument — this Flamengo vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Gremio travel to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to take on Flamengo. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 June 2024, 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Flamengo — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Flamengo at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Gremio have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Gremio are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Flamengo, 2 for Gremio and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2023, ended 2–3 with Gremio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Flamengo in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Gremio in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 47% versus Gremio 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 53% | Gremio 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.38 xG and Gremio 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.036 / defence 0.920 | Gremio attack 0.917 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.183. Data: 45 Flamengo games / 43 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 45% | Draw 28% | Gremio 27%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Gremio 3.70. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gremio (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Flamengo 30% | Gremio 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jun 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 45% | Draw 28% | Gremio 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Flamengo 1.38 / Gremio 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.036 / def 0.920 | Gremio attack 0.917 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Gremio xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Gremio kick off?
Flamengo vs Gremio kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 14 June 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Gremio?
Flamengo 2 - 1 Gremio.
Where is Flamengo vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Gremio part of?
Flamengo vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 45% chance of winning, Gremio a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Flamengo and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Gremio?
Record (4 meetings): Flamengo 1W | Draws 1 | Gremio 2W.
What form are Flamengo and Gremio in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Gremio (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Flamengo's attack rating (1.04) and Gremio's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
45%
2.21
28%
3.54
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.38
1.00
Gremio xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
7%
15.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Flamengo and 1.00 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Flamengo come into this having played 38 games, going 19W 9D 10L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Gremio sit at 1.79 PPG from 38 outings (21W 5D 12L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Flamengo on 1.74 PPG, Gremio on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Flamengo's home form reads 10W 5D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Gremio have taken 1.26 points per game from 19 outings (7W 3D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.66 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Gremio in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 19W 9D 10L in their last 38 games (1.74 PPG), while Gremio have gone 21W 5D 12L in their last 38 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Gremio away?
Flamengo's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.84 PPG; Gremio away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Gremio in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jun 2023, when Flamengo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Flamengo
2
Draws
3
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Gremio?
From 9 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 4, Gremio have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Gremio 0-1 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Gremio?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 37%, Gremio 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Flamengo) and 74% (Gremio). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 5% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Gremio in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Flamengo's recent matches and 68% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Flamengo's matches and 74% of Gremio's.
Do Flamengo and Gremio tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Gremio in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Gremio 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Gremio 2-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.38 xG and Gremio 1.00 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.04 / defence 0.92 against Gremio attack 0.92 / defence 1.14, drawn from 45/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 45% | Draw 28% | Gremio 27%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 53%, Gremio 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Gremio's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.74 PPG, Gremio 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.