Flamengo 0-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Fluminense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Fluminense travel to Neo Química Arena to take on Flamengo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 July 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have gone 4W 0D 2L from 6 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.83 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Flamengo have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Neo Química Arena, Flamengo have gone 3W 0D 1L this season (4 games, 2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Neo Química Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fluminense stand at 2W 4D 2L from 8 Serie A matches — 1.25 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.88 per game is modest, conceding 1.12 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense away from home this season: 0W 3D 1L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.25 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Flamengo are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.75 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.25). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Fluminense trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 33% versus Fluminense 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Flamengo 33% | Fluminense 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.24 xG and Fluminense 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.212 / defence 1.077 | Fluminense attack 0.759 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 0.951 / away 1.082. Data: 6 Flamengo games / 8 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 43% | Draw 32% | Fluminense 25%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Fluminense 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Flamengo 50% | Fluminense 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jul 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 43% | Draw 32% | Fluminense 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Flamengo 1.24 / Fluminense 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.212 / def 1.077 | Fluminense attack 0.759 / def 1.075 | league avg home 0.951 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Fluminense xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Fluminense kick off?
Flamengo vs Fluminense kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 4 July 2021 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Flamengo 0 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Flamengo vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Flamengo vs Fluminense part of?
Flamengo vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 43% chance of winning, Fluminense a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Flamengo and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Fluminense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Flamengo and Fluminense in?
Flamengo (all comps): 4W-0D-2L in 6 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.83 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Fluminense (all comps): 2W-4D-2L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.12 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.21x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
43%
2.34
32%
3.09
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.12
0.89
Fluminense xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
7%
13.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.89 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Flamengo's recent record stands at 4W 0D 2L from 6 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Flamengo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 2L across 6 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fluminense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fluminense heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fluminense's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across 3 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Flamengo are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fluminense in 67%.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Early Season
Fluminense
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 4W 0D 2L in their last 6 games (2.00 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Fluminense away?
Flamengo's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.00 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Fluminense in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Flamengo and Fluminense runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Flamengo's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Flamengo
2
Draws
4
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 4, Fluminense have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Fluminense 1-2 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Flamengo at 67%, Fluminense at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Flamengo) and 33% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fluminense in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Fluminense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Flamengo's games and 67% of Fluminense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Flamengo vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Flamengo's recent games and 33% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Fluminense tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fluminense defy the odds to beat Flamengo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Flamengo 0-1 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.24 xG and Fluminense 0.89 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Flamengo fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.21 / defence 1.08 against Fluminense attack 0.76 / defence 1.07, drawn from 6/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 43% | Draw 32% | Fluminense 25%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Fluminense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 33%, Fluminense 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Fluminense's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Fluminense winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Fluminense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.