Flamengo 2-0 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho plays host to Flamengo versus Corinthians in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Flamengo (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Flamengo's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Corinthians have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Corinthians away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Flamengo, 1.70 for Corinthians — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Flamengo 2W, Corinthians 2W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Flamengo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Corinthians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 51% versus Corinthians 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 53% | Corinthians 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.23 xG and Corinthians 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 0.938 / defence 1.032 | Corinthians attack 0.828 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.096. Data: 43 Flamengo games / 43 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 41% | Draw 32% | Corinthians 26%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Corinthians 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 30% | Corinthians 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 41% | Draw 32% | Corinthians 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Flamengo 1.23 / Corinthians 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 0.938 / def 1.032 | Corinthians attack 0.828 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Corinthians xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Corinthians kick off?
Flamengo vs Corinthians kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Flamengo 2 - 0 Corinthians.
Where is Flamengo vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Corinthians part of?
Flamengo vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 41% chance of winning, Corinthians a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Flamengo and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Corinthians?
Record (5 meetings): Flamengo 2W | Draws 1 | Corinthians 2W.
What form are Flamengo and Corinthians in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Corinthians (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 0.94x the league average against Corinthians's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Corinthians's attack (0.83x) against Flamengo's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
41%
2.43
32%
3.08
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.16
0.94
Corinthians xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
8%
12.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.94 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Flamengo's recent record stands at 37W 17D 22L from 76 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Corinthians, meanwhile, have gone 30W 25D 21L across 76 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Flamengo against 1.51 for Corinthians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 21W 8D 9L from 38 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Corinthians's away record stands at 12W 11D 15L across 38 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Flamengo are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.20 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 37W 17D 22L in their last 76 games (1.68 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 30W 25D 21L in their last 76 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Corinthians away?
Flamengo's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.87 PPG; Corinthians away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Corinthians in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 4-0 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Corinthians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Flamengo
2
Draws
3
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Corinthians?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 5, Corinthians have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Corinthians 1-1 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Corinthians?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 42%, Corinthians 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Flamengo) and 45% (Corinthians).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Corinthians in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Flamengo's recent matches and 47% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Flamengo's recent games and 45% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Corinthians tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Corinthians.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Corinthians 2-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.23 xG and Corinthians 0.94 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Corinthians landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 0.94 / defence 1.03 against Corinthians attack 0.83 / defence 1.02, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 41% | Draw 32% | Corinthians 26%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 53%, Corinthians 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Corinthians's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.68 PPG, Corinthians 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Flamengo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Corinthians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.