Flamengo 2-1 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Flamengo (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Flamengo face Bahia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Bahia travel to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to take on Flamengo. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 June 2024, 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Flamengo have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bahia — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bahia away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Flamengo have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Bahia have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Flamengo winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Flamengo and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Bahia trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 47% versus Bahia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 53% | Bahia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.52 xG and Bahia 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.074 / defence 0.948 | Bahia attack 1.114 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.129. Data: 47 Flamengo games / 47 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 44% | Draw 27% | Bahia 29%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Bahia 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Flamengo 30% | Bahia 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jun 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 44% | Draw 27% | Bahia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Flamengo 1.52 / Bahia 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.074 / def 0.948 | Bahia attack 1.114 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Bahia xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Bahia kick off?
Flamengo vs Bahia kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 21 June 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Bahia?
Flamengo 2 - 1 Bahia.
Where is Flamengo vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Bahia part of?
Flamengo vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 44% chance of winning, Bahia a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Flamengo and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Bahia?
Record (4 meetings): Flamengo 4W | Draws 0 | Bahia 0W.
What form are Flamengo and Bahia in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Bahia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.07x the league average against Bahia's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.70
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.71
1.19
Bahia xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
6%
15.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Flamengo and 1.19 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Flamengo's recent record stands at 19W 9D 10L from 38 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 18L across 38 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bahia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 10W 5D 4L from 19 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 4W 3D 12L across 19 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.32 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Bahia in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 19W 9D 10L in their last 38 games (1.74 PPG), while Bahia have gone 12W 8D 18L in their last 38 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Bahia away?
Flamengo's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.84 PPG; Bahia away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Bahia in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jul 2021, when Flamengo won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
8
Flamengo
0
Draws
1
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Bahia?
From 9 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 8, Bahia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Flamengo 2-0 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Bahia?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 37%, Bahia 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Flamengo) and 47% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Bahia in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Flamengo's recent matches and 37% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Flamengo's recent games and 47% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Bahia tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bahia in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Bahia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Bahia 2-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.52 xG and Bahia 1.19 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.07 / defence 0.95 against Bahia attack 1.11 / defence 1.12, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 44% | Draw 27% | Bahia 29%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 53%, Bahia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Bahia's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.