Flamengo 2-0 Atletico Goianiense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Atletico Goianiense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Flamengo host Atletico Goianiense at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Flamengo — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Flamengo have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Atletico Goianiense have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Atletico Goianiense have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Flamengo 1.60 PPG, Atletico Goianiense 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Flamengo in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Atletico Goianiense in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 48% versus Atletico Goianiense 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 56% | Atletico Goianiense 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.26 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.162 / defence 1.044 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.823 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 0.940 / away 0.971. Data: 27 Flamengo games / 28 Atletico Goianiense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 45% | Draw 32% | Atletico Goianiense 23%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Atletico Goianiense 4.35. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 30% | Atletico Goianiense 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Atletico Goianiense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 45% | Draw 32% | Atletico Goianiense 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Flamengo 1.26 / Atletico Goianiense 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.162 / def 1.044 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.823 / def 1.156 | league avg home 0.940 / away 0.971 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Atletico Goianiense xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Atletico Goianiense kick off?
Flamengo vs Atletico Goianiense kicked off at 00:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Atletico Goianiense?
Flamengo 2 - 0 Atletico Goianiense.
Where is Flamengo vs Atletico Goianiense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Atletico Goianiense part of?
Flamengo vs Atletico Goianiense is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 45% chance of winning, Atletico Goianiense a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Flamengo and Atletico Goianiense will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Atletico Goianiense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Atletico Goianiense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Flamengo and Atletico Goianiense in?
Flamengo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Flamengo's attack rating (1.16) and Atletico Goianiense's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Goianiense's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
45%
2.22
32%
3.17
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.10
0.83
Atletico Goianiense xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
7%
15.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Atletico Goianiense expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.83 for Atletico Goianiense, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Atletico Goianiense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Flamengo have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 15W 5D 7L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Goianiense's form line: 8W 10D 9L from 27 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Atletico Goianiense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Atletico Goianiense.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Flamengo have posted 1.92 PPG from 13 outings (8W 1D 4L).
On the road, Atletico Goianiense have gone 4W 3D 6L from 13 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Flamengo are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Atletico Goianiense are on 0.85 scored and 0.96 conceded. Flamengo's scoring rate against Atletico Goianiense's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Atletico Goianiense in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Atletico Goianiense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Atletico Goianiense in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 15W 5D 7L in their last 27 games (1.85 PPG), while Atletico Goianiense have gone 8W 10D 9L in their last 27 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Atletico Goianiense away?
Flamengo's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.92 PPG; Atletico Goianiense away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Atletico Goianiense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Atletico Goianiense in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Flamengo and Atletico Goianiense runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Flamengo go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jul 2022, when Flamengo won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Atletico Goianiense specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Flamengo
1
Draws
1
Atletico Goianiense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Atletico Goianiense?
From 6 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 4, Atletico Goianiense have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Atletico Goianiense last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2024, when Flamengo 2-0 Atletico Goianiense.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Atletico Goianiense?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Atletico Goianiense see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 38%, Atletico Goianiense 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Flamengo) and 46% (Atletico Goianiense).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Atletico Goianiense in 38%; Flamengo have failed to score in 31% of games; Atletico Goianiense in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Atletico Goianiense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Atletico Goianiense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Flamengo's recent matches and 46% of Atletico Goianiense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Atletico Goianiense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Flamengo's recent games and 46% of Atletico Goianiense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Atletico Goianiense tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Atletico Goianiense in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Atletico Goianiense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Atletico Goianiense 2-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.26 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.83 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Atletico Goianiense landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.16 / defence 1.04 against Atletico Goianiense attack 0.82 / defence 1.16, drawn from 27/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 45% | Draw 32% | Atletico Goianiense 23%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 56%, Atletico Goianiense 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points. Flamengo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico Goianiense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.