Cuiaba 2-1 Santos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Santos at 35%, yet in-form Cuiaba provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cuiaba vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cuiaba host Santos at Arena Pantanal in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 September 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cuiaba stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 4L across 9 games at Arena Pantanal this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Arena Pantanal this season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Santos have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Santos have posted 1W 3D 4L from 8 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Cuiaba are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Cuiaba in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Santos in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 44% versus Santos 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 33% | Santos 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.15 xG and Santos 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.906 / defence 1.279 | Santos attack 0.850 / defence 1.466. League average goals — home 0.862 / away 1.069. Santos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.466 — this is suppressing Cuiaba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Cuiaba games / 18 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 34% | Draw 31% | Santos 35%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Santos 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Santos are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cuiaba (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Cuiaba 56% | Santos 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Sep 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 34% | Draw 31% | Santos 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Cuiaba 1.15 / Santos 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.906 / def 1.279 | Santos attack 0.850 / def 1.466 | league avg home 0.862 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Santos (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Santos xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Santos kick off?
Cuiaba vs Santos kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 5 September 2021 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Santos?
Cuiaba 2 - 1 Santos.
Where is Cuiaba vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Santos part of?
Cuiaba vs Santos is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 34% chance of winning, Santos a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cuiaba and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Santos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cuiaba and Santos in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Santos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cuiaba's attack at 0.91x the league average against Santos's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Santos's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
34%
2.92
31%
3.26
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.31
1.16
Santos xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.16 for Santos, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Cuiaba have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 4W 9D 5L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Santos's form line: 5W 7D 6L from 18 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-L. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 1.17 PPG, Santos on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cuiaba have posted 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
On the road, Santos have gone 1W 3D 4L from 8 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santos's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Cuiaba are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.06 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
Santos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Santos in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 4W 9D 5L in their last 18 games (1.17 PPG), while Santos have gone 5W 7D 6L in their last 18 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Santos away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.00 PPG; Santos away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Santos in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2022, when Santos won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cuiaba's record when hosting Santos specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cuiaba
3
Draws
1
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Santos?
From 6 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 2, Santos have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2023, when Santos 0-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Santos?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 50%, Santos 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Cuiaba) and 50% (Santos).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba have failed to score in 38% of games; Santos in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 50% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cuiaba's recent games and 50% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Santos tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Santos in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cuiaba defy the odds to beat Santos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Santos 2-1 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.15 xG and Santos 1.16 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cuiaba beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.91 / defence 1.28 against Santos attack 0.85 / defence 1.47, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 34% | Draw 31% | Santos 35%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Cuiaba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 33%, Santos 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Santos's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.17 PPG, Santos 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.